Magdalena Frech vs Elena RybakinaCincinnati Round of 32

Cincinnati · WTA · Round of 32
#41WTA
1725ELO
1700Hard ELO
$778kYTD
$4.9MCAREER
28 yrs · 171 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWLWLLLL
0 — 2
Sets
Monday, 17 August 2026 ·
hard
COURT 10 · 2nd on
#2WTA
2122ELO
2110Hard ELO
$4.7MYTD
$29MCAREER
27 yrs · 184 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWWWWWLWW
Frech M.
4-6 6-7
Rybakina E.
Frech M.
4620
Rybakina E.
6772

Elena Rybakina defeated Magdalena Frech in the Round of 32 at the Cincinnati tournament on hard courts. The match ended with a score of 6-4, 7-6 in favor of Rybakina. Key stats from the match included equal aces for both players at 5, with Rybakina committing 4 double faults to Frech's 1, and Rybakina winning 84% of her first-serve points to Frech's 67%.

Key context

Head to head

02
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-07-21WashingtonQFhardElena Rybakina6-3 6-3
2024-02-19DubaiR16hardElena Rybakina7-6 3-6 6-4

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
62%
58%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
66%
73%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
44%
52%
Service points won·Slight edge
58%
64%
Return points won·Even
43%
42%
Break points saved·Slight edge
58%
66%
Aces / match·Dominant
3.0
6.4
Double faults / match·Even
2.4
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (28 vs 43). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
18
98
Break points saved·Dominant
15
96
Break points won·Dominant
49
96
Deciding sets·Dominant
28
98
Tiebreaks·Dominant
61
92

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC
Frech M.10%
Rybakina E.90%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Rybakina E. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.7
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
7.2
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
0.0Hard Elo 1700
Surface ELO
10.0+410 Hard Elo edge
0.0Overall Elo 1725
ELO gap
10.0Overall Elo 2122
2.2Trails 0–2 on hard
H2H
7.8Leads 2–0 on hard
6.26 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
8.69 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
0.04 three-setters in 14 days
6.1Won 68% in Usa (34)
Country comfort
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
75
56

Frech M.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 59 games (7d) · Rybakina E.: 2 days rest · 4 matches, 87 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
27°COvercast
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 74%

Draw