Magdalena Frech vs Eva LysBerlin Round of 32

Berlin · WTA · Round of 32
#43WTA
1738ELO
1574Grass ELO
$634kYTD
$4.8MCAREER
28 yrs · 171 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWLWLWLLLL
Sets
Tuesday, 16 June 2026 ·
grass
#82WTA
1797ELO
1620Grass ELO
24 yrs · 165 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWLLLLLWLL
Frech M.
vs
Lys E.

Magdalena Frech faces Eva Lys in the Berlin round of 32 on grass. Magdalena Frech holds the paper edge — ranked #43, defending last year's round of 16.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 20:20 UTC
Frech M.41%
Lys E.59%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Lys E. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.5
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
Form & Matchup
4.4Grass Elo 1574
Surface ELO
5.6+46 Grass Elo edge
4.7Overall Elo 1738
ELO gap
5.3Overall Elo 1797
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
2.42 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
4.95 of last 10 on grass
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Surface transition
3.0Clay → Grass
Context
6.0Reached the last 16 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R32 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Frech M.Stable
Lys E.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

19 vs 6 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
62%
65%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
67%
57%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
44%
34%
Service points won·Slight edge
58%
49%
Return points won·Even
43%
39%
Break points saved·Clear edge
58%
46%
Aces / match·Clear edge
3.4
0.8
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.6
6.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (19 vs 6). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Frech M.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Lys E.

Lys E.serving67% hold

wins 57% of points on serve vs Frech M.

Serve advantage — Frech M.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
58
60
Break points saved·Clear edge
76
57
Break points won·Clear edge
71
95
Deciding sets·Slight edge
71
66
Tiebreaks·
58

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
77
100

Frech M.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 36 games (7d) · Lys E.: 19 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

R32
R16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final