Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova — WTA Finals Round Robin
Why
Surface+167 Hard Elo edgeSupports Sabalenka A.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 2220Supports Sabalenka A.
Recent runLost last 2Informative
Head-to-headSplit 2–2 on hardSupports Sabalenka A.
This eventReached the final here last yearSupports Sabalenka A.
ELO2 245
Hard ELO2 160
Last 107–3
Age28
Height182 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $53.3M2026 $8.1M
ELO2 143
Hard ELO1 993
Last 107–3
Age30
Height178 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $14.9M2026 $4.5M
Aryna Sabalenka faces Karolina Muchova in the WTA Finals round robin on hard. Aryna Sabalenka is the paper favourite — ranked #2, defending last year's final, a roughly 170-point hard Elo advantage — but Karolina Muchova has won 3 of their 5 previous meetings. Recent hard form is closely matched.
Key context
- Head-to-head: Karolina Muchova leads the head-to-head 3–2, 2–2 on hard. Last met at Brisbane 2026.
- Stage: Aryna Sabalenka defends last year's final.
- Surface form: Both 7 of 10 on hard recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.
Common opponents
18 shared · last 12 monthsSabalenka A. and Muchova K. faced 18 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Sabalenka A. went 23–6 (79%) against them, Muchova K. 19–8 (70%). Results against comparable opponents are close (5 : 2 better-results split).
23–679%Sabalenka A. · better vs 5Record vs common opponents19–870%Muchova K. · better vs 2
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
49–17Sets40–24
365–280Games315–299
7–3Tiebreaks7–0
4–4Deciding sets8–2
vs Rybakina E.#1L4-6 6-4 4-6Australian Open · hardW6-2 2-6 6-4Brisbane · hard
vs Gauff C.#4W6-2 4-6 6-3Miami · hardL1-6 1-6Miami · hard
vs Svitolina E.#6W6-2 6-3Australian Open · hardW6-4 2-6 6-4Stuttgart · clay
Show 15 more ▾Show less ▴
vs Noskova L.#8W7-6(1) 3-6 7-6(7)US Open · hardL2-6 7-5 3-6Wimbledon · grass
vs Shnaider D.#11L6-3 5-7 0-6Roland Garros · clayL5-7 3-6Wuhan · hard
vs Osaka N.#16L2-6 6-7Wimbledon · grassW7-6 6-4Wimbledon · grass
vs Mboko V.#20W7-6 6-4Indian Wells · hardW7-5 7-6Miami · hard- vs Keys M.#24W6-3 6-3Brisbane · hardL4-6 5-7Berlin · grass
- vs Potapova A.#27W7-6(4) 7-6(7)Australian Open · hardL3-6 2-6Rome · clay
- vs Bartunkova N.#29L4-6 3-6Beijing · hardL3-6 0-6Beijing · hard
- vs Alexandrova E.#32W6-4 6-4Berlin · grassW6-4 7-5Brisbane · hard
vs Rakhimova K.#44W6-3 6-4US Open · hardW6-2 6-2Roland Garros · clay- vs Krejcikova B.#48W6-2 6-3Rome · clayW7-5 5-7 6-3Wimbledon · grass
- vs McNally C.#65W6-4 6-2Miami · hardW3-6 7-6(1) 7-6(4)Wuhan · hard
vs Osorio Serrano M.#69W6-2 6-4US Open · hardW4-6 6-2 7-5Miami · hard
vs Cristian J.#79W6-4 6-1Indian Wells · hardW6-2 6-3Doha · hard
vs Zhang S.#95W6-3 6-4Toronto · hardW6-3 6-2Wimbledon · grass
vs Bouzas Maneiro J.#100W6-4 6-2Roland Garros · clayW7-5 6-4Billie Jean King Cup · hard
Head-to-head
5 meetings · Muchova K. leads 3–223
Hard: level 2–2 · Clay: Muchova K. leads 1–0
- Sabalenka A.January 2026BrisbaneHard6-3 6-4
- Muchova K.September 2024BeijingHard7-6 2-6 6-4
- Muchova K.August 2023CincinnatiHard6-7 6-3 6-2
- Muchova K.May 2023Roland GarrosClay7-6 6-7 7-5
- Sabalenka A.October 2019ZhuhaiHard7-5 7-6
Evidence
Sabalenka A.Muchova K.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss7–37–3
Season win rate82% (49–11) (ahead)79% (44–12)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO2245 (ahead)2143
Hard-court ELO2160 (ahead)1993
Serve vs returnLast 58 vs 54 matches
1st-serve points won71% (ahead)70%
Return points won44% (ahead)43%
Aces / match5.1 (ahead)3.7
ClutchLast 58 vs 54 matches
Break points saved64% (ahead)61%
Draw
Odds
Cite this
Umpiry, "Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova — WTA Finals Round Robin", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-09/muchova-vs-sabalenka-wta-finals-rr?utm_source=cite (as of 9 November 2026).