Karolina Muchova vs Nikola Bartunkova — Beijing Quarter-final
Karolina Muchova faces Nikola Bartunkova in the Beijing quarter-final on hard. Karolina Muchova holds the paper edge — ranked #8, defending last year's round of 16, a roughly 310-point hard Elo advantage.
Key context
- Freshness: Karolina Muchova comes in with 2 days of rest and 119 games in 14d, vs Nikola Bartunkova's 2 and 60.
- Last match: Nikola Bartunkova handed Sinja Kraus a first-set bagel in a 6–0 4–6 6–3 win.
- Win streak: Both arrive in form — Karolina Muchova on a 5-match run, Nikola Bartunkova on 3.
Serve flowBartunkova N. unbroken.
- Hold to love/15
- Hold to 30
- Hold to 40 / deuce
- Broken
- Result unknown
Muchova K.Bartunkova N.1/1
Set 1
Match momentumLive
Too early to read the momentum
Pre-match context
Muchova K. came in with the higher hard rating (2024 vs 1808).
Pre-match prediction
Set before the first ball · not updated in playPre-match win probability
71%29%
Umpiry Score
8.1/10/106.0
Matchup strength 0–10 · not a probabilityCommon opponents
12 shared · last 12 monthsMuchova K. and Bartunkova N. faced 12 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Muchova K. went 8–5 (62%) against them, Bartunkova N. 8–7 (53%). Results against comparable opponents are close (4 : 3 better-results split).
8–562%Muchova K. · better vs 4Record vs common opponents8–753%Bartunkova N. · better vs 3
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
18–14Sets19–16
155–144Games155–152
1–0Tiebreaks0–0
4–2Deciding sets3–2
vs Sabalenka A.#2L3-6 4-6Brisbane · hardL6-2 4-6Berlin · grass
vs Svitolina E.#7W6-4 2-6 6-4Stuttgart · clayL2-6 3-6Rome · clay
vs Bencic B.#12L6-3 5-7 5-7Tokyo · hardW6-3 0-6 6-4Australian Open · hard
Show 9 more ▾Show less ▴
vs Mboko V.#15W7-5 7-6Miami · hardL1-6 2-6Roland Garros · clay
vs Mertens E.#19W1-6 6-3 6-0Stuttgart · clayW6-1 6-4Berlin · grass
vs Keys M.#23L4-6 5-7Berlin · grassW6-3 1-6 6-4Rome · clay
vs Potapova A.#25L3-6 2-6Rome · clayL6-4 4-6 2-6Rome · clay
vs Krejcikova B.#43W7-5 5-7 6-3Wimbledon · grassL3-6 5-7Wimbledon · grass
vs Tauson C.#44W1-6 6-2 6-4Bad Homburg · grassW6-3 6-4Toronto · hard
vs Ruzic A.#83W6-0 6-3Indian Wells · hardW6-4 6-3Monterrey · hard
vs Kraus S.#95W6-3 6-0US Open · hardW6-0 4-6 6-3Beijing · hard- vs Shnaider D.#14Hard to compareL6-2 1-6 2-6Ningbo · hardW6-2 6-3Berlin · grass
Head-to-head
They have not met before.
Season statistics
Form · Rating · Serve vs return · ClutchShowHide
Muchova K.Bartunkova N.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss8–28–2
Season win rate81% (43–10) (ahead)66% (38–20)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO2172 (ahead)1961
Hard-court ELO2024 (ahead)1808
Serve vs returnLast 43 vs 39 matches
1st-serve points won70% (ahead)69%
Return points won43%43%
Aces / match3.54.1 (ahead)
ClutchLast 43 vs 39 matches
Break points saved62% (ahead)55%
Draw
Cite this
Umpiry, "Karolina Muchova vs Nikola Bartunkova — Beijing Quarter-final", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-08/bartunkova-vs-muchova-beijing-qf?utm_source=cite (as of 8 October 2026).