Karolina Muchova vs Clara Tauson — Bad Homburg Quarter-final

Bad Homburg · WTA · Quarter-final

CZE

Karolina Muchova

#11WTA

2053ELO

1773Grass ELO

$1.8MYTD

$12MCAREER

29 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WLWLWWLLWW

—

Sets

Thursday, 25 June 2026 · 17:00

grass

CENTRE COURT · 4th on

DEN

Clara Tauson

#25WTA

1789ELO

1635Grass ELO

$741kYTD

$5.2MCAREER

23 yrs · 182 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WWLLLLLLWL

Muchova K.

Tauson C.

Karolina Muchova faces Clara Tauson in the Bad Homburg quarter-final on grass. They have met once, Clara Tauson leading 1–0, though this is their first meeting on grass.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 19:20 UTC

Muchova K.78%

Tauson C.22%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Muchova K. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Under pressure: In the tight moments, Karolina Muchova has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 92 vs 71).
Last match: Clara Tauson dropped the opening set before beating Qinwen Zheng 5–7 6–4 6–2.
Last match: Karolina Muchova dropped just 2 games past Irina Camelia Begu.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Muchova K.

6.0

Even matchUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Tauson C.

4.9

Heavy underdogUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Form & Matchup

6.7+139 Grass Elo edge

Surface ELO

3.3Grass Elo 1635

7.6Overall Elo 2053

ELO gap

2.4Overall Elo 1789

5.0First meeting on grass

H2H

5.0First meeting on grass

5.05 of last 10 on grass

Surface form

6.16 of last 10 on grass

Fatigue & Travel

3-set count

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

6.0Reached the last 16 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Muchova K.Sliding

Tauson C.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

23 vs 13 matches

Statistics

This season

Muchova K.Tauson C.

1st serve in·Even

66%

63%

1st serve points won·Even

69%

72%

2nd serve points won·Slight edge

49%

40%

Service points won·Even

62%

60%

Return points won·Even

43%

42%

Break points saved·Even

60%

57%

Aces / match·Dominant

3.2

7.1

Double faults / match·Dominant

1.1

3.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 13). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Muchova K.serving88% hold

wins 69% of points on serve vs Tauson C.

Tauson C.serving84% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Muchova K.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure

Muchova K.Tauson C.

Clutch Rating·Clear edge

Break points saved·Slight edge

Break points won·Even

Deciding sets·Dominant

Tiebreaks·Clear edge

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load

Muchova K.Tauson C.

Freshness·Slight edge

Muchova K.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 22 games (7d) · Tauson C.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 20 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

When it starts

4th on CENTRE COURT · not before Not before 5:00 PM · 2 matches still to finish ahead

Conditions

Court speed

Fastbig serves, short points

SlowFast

Weather forecast

31°CClear

Wind 7 km/hHumidity 44%

Head to head

0–1

Date	Tournament	Round	Surface	Winner	Score
2025-02-17	Dubai	SF	hard	Clara Tauson	6-4 6-7(4) 6-3