Karolina Muchova vs Clara TausonBad Homburg Quarter-final

Bad Homburg · WTA · Quarter-final
#7WTA
2066ELO
1852Grass ELO
$4.5MYTD
$15MCAREER
29 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWWW
2 — 1
Sets
Thursday, 25 June 2026 ·
grass
#42WTA
1802ELO
1649Grass ELO
$911kYTD
$5.3MCAREER
23 yrs · 182 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLLWWWLW
Muchova K.
1-6 6-2 6-4
Tauson C.
Muchova K.
1662
Tauson C.
6241

Karolina Muchova defeated Clara Tauson in the quarterfinals of the Bad Homburg tournament on grass. Muchova won 1-6, 6-2, 6-4. The match saw Muchova hit 3 aces and 3 double faults, while Tauson hit 9 aces and 5 double faults.

Key context

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-02-17DubaiSFhardClara Tauson6-4 6-7 6-3

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
65%
63%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
69%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
52%
43%
Service points won·Even
63%
59%
Return points won·Even
43%
42%
Break points saved·Slight edge
63%
58%
Aces / match·Clear edge
3.5
6.0
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.5
3.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (41 vs 28). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
92
63
Break points saved·Clear edge
91
76
Break points won·Even
88
91
Deciding sets·Dominant
97
42
Tiebreaks·Dominant
99
67

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:50 UTC
Muchova K.75%
Tauson C.25%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Muchova K. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.5+41 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.5Grass Elo 1501
7.9Overall Elo 1927
ELO gap
2.1Overall Elo 1695
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
5.15 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
6.26 of last 10 on grass
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
71

Tauson C.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 53 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
36°CClear
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 31%

Draw