Karolina Muchova vs Ajla TomljanovicBrisbane Round of 32

Brisbane · WTA · Round of 32
#9WTA
2066ELO
2034Hard ELO
$2.0MYTD
$12MCAREER
29 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWWW
2 — 1
Sets
Sunday, 4 January 2026
hard
#94WTA
1745ELO
1723Hard ELO
33 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWLWWWL
Muchova K.
4-6 6-1 7-6
Tomljanovic A.
Muchova K.
46772
Tomljanovic A.
61651

Karolina Muchova defeated Ajla Tomljanovic 4-6 6-1 7-6 in the Brisbane round of 32 on hard. The result followed the form book — Karolina Muchova came in ranked #9. Karolina Muchova claimed a first win over Ajla Tomljanovic in two meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 1–1.

Key context

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2022-08-29US OpenR128hardAjla Tomljanovic6-3 7-6(5)

Serve vs return

This season
Muchova K.serving79% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Tomljanovic A.

Tomljanovic A.serving74% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Muchova K.

Serve advantage — Muchova K.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Muchova K.Tomljanovic A.
70
Serve
26
44
Return
52

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
66%
67%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
69%
64%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
50%
44%
Service points won·Slight edge
63%
58%
Return points won·Even
43%
45%
Break points saved·Even
61%
59%
Aces / match·Slight edge
3.2
2.0
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.0
5.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (22 vs 17). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
95
71
Break points saved·Dominant
98
73
Break points won·Even
94
92
Deciding sets·Clear edge
98
75
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
99
78

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 76 days (−1.2)
3.7
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 69 days (−1.2)
Form & Matchup
8.9+311 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
1.1Hard Elo 1723
9.1Overall Elo 2066
ELO gap
0.9Overall Elo 1745
5.0
H2H
5.0
5.9
Surface form
5.9
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
Country comfort
6.4
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
51
97

Muchova K.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 113 games (7d) · Tomljanovic A.: 12 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
29°COvercast
Wind 1 km/hHumidity 56%

Draw