Madison Keys vs Nikola BartunkovaRome Round of 32

Rome · WTA · Round of 32
#22WTA
1987ELO
1894Clay ELO
$1.1MYTD
$24MCAREER
31 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWWL
1 — 2
Sets
Sunday, 10 May 2026 ·
clay
#48WTA
1788ELO
1686Clay ELO
$507kYTD
$713kCAREER
20 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWLLWW
Keys M.
3-6 6-1 4-6
Bartunkova N.
Keys M.
3641
Bartunkova N.
6162

Nikola Bartunkova defeated Madison Keys 6-3 1-6 6-4 in the Rome round of 32 on clay. The upset overturned the form book — Madison Keys came in ranked #22, defending last year's round of 32.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Keys M.serving76% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Bartunkova N.

Bartunkova N.serving72% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Keys M.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
66%
57%
1st serve points won·Even
67%
71%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
48%
Service points won·Even
60%
61%
Return points won·Even
45%
42%
Break points saved·Slight edge
65%
60%
Aces / match·Even
4.0
4.4
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.8
4.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (18 vs 26). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
94
72
Break points saved·Clear edge
96
76
Break points won·Even
90
90
Deciding sets·Clear edge
97
75
Tiebreaks·
96

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.9
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
8.5+208 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
1.5Clay Elo 1686
8.5Overall Elo 1987
ELO gap
1.5Overall Elo 1788
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
8.3
Surface form
6.9
Fatigue & Travel
7.0
3-set count
7.0
5.7
Country comfort
Context
6.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
77
90

Keys M.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 49 games (7d) · Bartunkova N.: 8 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
21°COvercast
Wind 6 km/hHumidity 70%

Draw

R128
R64
R32
R16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final