Karolina Muchova vs Caty Mcnally — Wuhan Round of 32
Why
Surface+303 Hard Elo edgeSupports Muchova K.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 2066Supports Muchova K.
Recent run3-match win streakAgainst the prediction · McNally C.
This eventReached the R32 here last yearSupports Muchova K.
Head-to-headSplit 1–1 on hardBoth players
ELO2 154
Hard ELO2 005
Last 107–3
Age30
Height178 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $14.9M2026 $4.5M
ELO1 925
Hard ELO1 739
Last 106–4
Age24
Height180 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $4.3M2026 $1.4M
Karolina Muchova faces Caty Mcnally in the Wuhan round of 32 on hard. Karolina Muchova is the paper favourite — ranked #7, defending last year's round of 32, a roughly 300-point hard Elo advantage — but Caty Mcnally rides a 3-match win streak. They have met 2 times, the series level at 1–1.
Key context
- Serve & return: Karolina Muchova brings the bigger serve (Serve Rating 80), Caty Mcnally the stronger return game (Return Rating 60).
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, Karolina Muchova has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 92 vs 55).
- Last match: Caty Mcnally dropped the opening set before beating Yuliia Starodubtseva 2–6 7–6 6–4.
Common opponents
13 shared · last 12 monthsMuchova K. and McNally C. faced 13 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Muchova K. went 9–6 (60%) against them, McNally C. 7–10 (41%). Muchova K. came out better against 6 of 12 comparable opponents, McNally C. against 2 — though 1 of those edges carries caveats (retirement).
9–660%Muchova K. · better vs 6Record vs common opponents7–1041%McNally C. · better vs 2
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
19–14Sets16–22
162–151Games166–183
2–0Tiebreaks2–0
2–2Deciding sets2–3
vs Rybakina E.#1L5-7 1-6Stuttgart · clayL1-6 2-6Wimbledon · grass
vs Sabalenka A.#2L3-6 4-6Brisbane · hardL4-6 2-6Miami · hard
vs Noskova L.#8L2-6 7-5 3-6Wimbledon · grassW7-6 6-1Toronto · hard
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vs Swiatek I.#9L2-6 0-6Indian Wells · hardL1-6 7-6 3-6Rome · clay
vs Mboko V.#15W6-4 7-5Doha · hardL4-6 3-6Australian Open · hard
vs Eala A.#19W6-0 6-2Miami · hardL3-6 7-5 4-6Toronto · hard
vs Kalinskaya A.#21W6-3 6-4Doha · hardL3-6 4-6Cincinnati · hard
vs Navarro E.#27L3-6 5-7US Open · hardL6-3 2-6 3-6US Open · hard- vs Pliskova K.#49W5-2Doha · hardL4-6Nottingham · grass
vs Ruse G.#57W6-4 6-4Bad Homburg · grassW7-5 6-3Wimbledon · grass
vs Ruzic A.#93W6-0 6-3Indian Wells · hardW6-3 6-0Nottingham · grass
vs Tomljanovic A.#108W4-6 6-1 7-6Brisbane · hardW6-4 4-6 6-3Guangzhou · hard
vs Bencic B.#12Hard to compareL6-3 5-7 5-7Tokyo · hardL4-6 0-6Roland Garros · clay
Head-to-head
2 meetings · level 1–111
- McNally C.October 2022OstravaHard6-1 3-6 6-1
- Muchova K.February 2021Gippsland TrophyHard6-1 6-1
Evidence
Muchova K.McNally C.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss7–3 (ahead)6–4
Season win rate80% (43–11) (ahead)58% (29–21)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO2154 (ahead)1925
Hard-court ELO2005 (ahead)1739
Serve vs returnLast 50 vs 44 matches
1st-serve points won70% (ahead)61%
Return points won43%45% (ahead)
Aces / match3.6 (ahead)1.4
ClutchLast 50 vs 44 matches
Break points saved62% (ahead)57%
Draw
Odds
Cite this
Umpiry, "Karolina Muchova vs Caty Mcnally — Wuhan Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-14/mcnally-vs-muchova-wuhan-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 14 October 2026).