Caty Mcnally vs Alexandra Eala — Toronto Round of 32

Toronto · WTA · Round of 32
Caty Mcnally
USA
Caty Mcnally
#73WTA
1817ELO
1731Hard ELO
$711kYTD
$3.7MCAREER
24 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLWWLWWLW
—
Sets
Saturday, 8 August 2026 ·
hard
Alexandra Eala
PHI25
Alexandra Eala
#28WTA
1895ELO
1833Hard ELO
$1.3MYTD
$2.6MCAREER
21 yrs · 173 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
WWWWWWLWWW
Mcnally C.
vs
Eala A.

Caty Mcnally faces Alexandra Eala in the Toronto round of 32 on hard. Alexandra Eala holds the paper edge — ranked #28, a roughly 100-point hard Elo advantage.

Around the match

  • McNally achieved a career-high 22nd WTA-level victory this season by mounting a remarkable comeback from 5-1 down against Wimbledon champion Noskova.

    Mcnally C.WTA Tennis ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 04:50 UTC
Mcnally C.34%
Eala A.66%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Eala A. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

  • Under pressure: In the tight moments, Alexandra Eala has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 77 vs 49).
  • Freshness: Caty Mcnally comes in with 1 days of rest and 118 games in 14d, vs Alexandra Eala's 0 and 136.
  • Win streak: Alexandra Eala arrives on a 6-match winning run.

Common opponents

Last 12 months
10 common opponents · Mcnally C. 6–7 · Eala A. 6–7
Eala A. better · same surface, 14 days apart▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Mcnally C.
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
Eala A.
7.2
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.7Hard Elo 1731
Surface ELO
6.3+102 Hard Elo edge
4.0Overall Elo 1817
ELO gap
6.0Overall Elo 1895
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.57 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
8.58 of last 10 on hard
Win streak
9.06-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

35 vs 44 matches

Statistics

This season
Mcnally C.Eala A.
1st serve in·Slight edge
71%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
61%
62%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
42%
49%
Service points won·Even
55%
58%
Return points won·Even
45%
45%
Break points saved·Even
58%
56%
Aces / match·Even
1.3
1.1
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.3
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (35 vs 44). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Mcnally C.serving64% hold

wins 56% of points on serve vs Eala A.

Eala A.serving71% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Mcnally C.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Mcnally C.Eala A.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
49
77
Break points saved·Dominant
32
75
Break points won·Even
94
97
Deciding sets·Dominant
44
82
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
74
79

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Mcnally C.Eala A.
Freshness·Slight edge
59
53

Mcnally C.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 86 games (7d) · Eala A.: played today · 4 matches, 88 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather forecast
22°CDrizzle
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 92%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw