Emma Navarro vs Karolina MuchovaUS Open Round of 32

US Open · WTA · Round of 32
#27WTA
1866ELO
1764Hard ELO
$922kYTD
25 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWLLWL
2 — 0
Sets
Friday, 4 September 2026 ·
hard
Grandstand · 2nd on
#7WTA
2066ELO
2034Hard ELO
$4.5MYTD
$15MCAREER
30 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWWWWWWW
Navarro E.
6-3 7-5
Muchova K.
Navarro E.
672
Muchova K.
350

Emma Navarro defeated Karolina Muchova in the Round of 32 at the US Open, advancing with a 6-3, 7-5 victory. The match saw Navarro and Muchova hit an equal number of aces, 2 each, and Navarro committed one double fault to Muchova's none. Navarro converted 29% of her break points and secured two service breaks, compared to Muchova's one break and 20% conversion rate.

Generated automatically from Umpiry match data.

Key context

  • Match story: Emma Navarro closed it out in two sets, 6–3 7–5.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
59%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
67%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
51%
Service points won·Even
59%
63%
Return points won·Even
42%
43%
Break points saved·Even
58%
62%
Aces / match·Even
3.3
3.5
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.9
1.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (35 vs 43). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
73
92
Break points saved·Dominant
48
91
Break points won·Slight edge
97
88
Deciding sets·Slight edge
89
97
Tiebreaks·Dominant
68
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 18:50 UTC
Navarro E.28%
Muchova K.72%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Muchova K. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
8.1
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
1.6Hard Elo 1764
Surface ELO
8.4+271 Hard Elo edge
2.5Overall Elo 1866
ELO gap
7.5Overall Elo 2066
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.94 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
8.48 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Context
6.0Reached the R32 here last year
Defending pts
7.0Reached the quarters here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
53
88

Navarro E.: played today · 4 matches, 93 games (7d) · Muchova K.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 34 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
29°CClear
Wind 19 km/hHumidity 40%

Draw