Aryna Sabalenka vs Kamilla Rakhimova — US Open Round of 32

US Open · WTA · Round of 32
Aryna Sabalenka
BLR1
Aryna Sabalenka
#1WTA
2220ELO
2201Hard ELO
$5.1MYTD
28 yrs · 182 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWLWWWLW
2 — 0
Sets
Friday, 4 September 2026 ·
hard
Louis Armstrong Stadium · 2nd on
Kamilla Rakhimova
UZB
Kamilla Rakhimova
#92WTA
1693ELO
1671Hard ELO
25 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWLWLWWL
Sabalenka A.
6-3 6-4
Rakhimova K.
Sabalenka A.
662
Rakhimova K.
340

Aryna Sabalenka advanced to the US Open Round of 16 with a 6-3, 6-4 victory over Kamilla Rakhimova. Sabalenka hit 4 aces and did not commit a double fault, while Rakhimova had 1 ace and 4 double faults. Sabalenka converted 50% of her break points and won 1 service break to Rakhimova's 0.

Generated automatically from Umpiry match data.

Around the match

  • “When I first came here, I felt like the top level was something untouchable, something impossible. I wish I would have had a different mindset back then.”

    Sabalenka A.WTA Tennis ↗

  • “It's been a long journey. I had to work so hard to change a lot of things in my game to be able to compete at the highest level.”

    Sabalenka A.WTA Tennis ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above. Lines marked “Umpiry summary” are written by Umpiry from the linked article, not quoted from it.

Key context

Head to head

3–0
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-05-26Roland GarrosR128clayAryna Sabalenka6-1 6-0
2024-07-29WashingtonR16hardAryna Sabalenka7-5 4-6 6-4
2023-05-29Roland GarrosR32clayAryna Sabalenka6-2 6-2
View full head-to-head →

Statistics

This season
Sabalenka A.Rakhimova K.
1st serve in·Slight edge
65%
57%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
72%
64%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
54%
45%
Service points won·Slight edge
65%
55%
Return points won·Even
45%
45%
Break points saved·Slight edge
64%
53%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.6
1.7
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.8
5.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (39 vs 38). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Sabalenka A.Rakhimova K.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
100
9
Break points saved·Dominant
93
7
Break points won·Clear edge
99
78
Deciding sets·Dominant
97
16
Tiebreaks·Dominant
100
3

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:50 UTC
Sabalenka A.95%
Rakhimova K.5%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Sabalenka A. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Sabalenka A.
7.7
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Rakhimova K.
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
10.0+530 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
0.0Hard Elo 1671
10.0Overall Elo 2220
ELO gap
0.0Overall Elo 1693
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
7.98 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.36 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R64 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Sabalenka A.Rakhimova K.
Freshness·Dominant
58
87

Sabalenka A.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 87 games (7d) · Rakhimova K.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 34 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
30°CClear
Wind 19 km/hHumidity 44%

Draw