Jessica Pegula vs Kamilla Rakhimova — Toronto Round of 32

Toronto · WTA · Round of 32
Jessica Pegula
USA3
Jessica Pegula
#3WTA
2097ELO
2058Hard ELO
$3.5MYTD
$25MCAREER
32 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWWWLWWWW
—
Sets
Thursday, 6 August 2026 ·
hard
Kamilla Rakhimova
UZB
Kamilla Rakhimova
#82WTA
1693ELO
1671Hard ELO
24 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLLWLLWLW
Pegula J.
vs
Rakhimova K.

Jessica Pegula faces Kamilla Rakhimova in the Toronto round of 32 on hard. Jessica Pegula holds the paper edge — ranked #3, a roughly 390-point hard Elo advantage.

Around the match

  • “I was just happy with the way I was able to mentally stay in there today. It was more of a mental battle for me figuring out what to do and not get too frustrated.”

    Pegula J.WTA Tennis ↗

  • “Filipino fans are insane. We were getting like 4,000 or 5,000 more subscribers after that match. It's pretty cool that it's crossed over.”

    Pegula J.WTA Tennis ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 04:50 UTC
Pegula J.87%
Rakhimova K.13%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Pegula J. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
12 common opponents · Pegula J. 17–5 · Rakhimova K. 3–13
Pegula J. better · same surface, 12 days apart▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Pegula J.
6.8
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Rakhimova K.
4.7
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
9.8+387 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
0.2Hard Elo 1671
10.0Overall Elo 2096
ELO gap
0.0Overall Elo 1693
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.78 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.45 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

40 vs 38 matches

Statistics

This season
Pegula J.Rakhimova K.
1st serve in·Slight edge
63%
57%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
70%
64%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
51%
45%
Service points won·Slight edge
63%
55%
Return points won·Even
46%
45%
Break points saved·Slight edge
58%
53%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.1
1.7
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.5
5.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (40 vs 38). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Pegula J.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Rakhimova K.

Rakhimova K.serving62% hold

wins 55% of points on serve vs Pegula J.

Serve advantage — Pegula J.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Pegula J.Rakhimova K.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
93
10
Break points saved·Dominant
86
7
Break points won·Clear edge
99
77
Deciding sets·Dominant
99
20
Tiebreaks·Dominant
90
2

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Pegula J.Rakhimova K.
Freshness·Clear edge
55
75

Pegula J.: 1 day rest · 5 matches, 119 games (7d) · Rakhimova K.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 43 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather forecast
28°CMainly clear
Wind 15 km/hHumidity 65%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw