Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik — Almaty Semi-final
Why
Surface+126 Hard Elo edgeSupports Medvedev D.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1977Supports Medvedev D.
Head-to-headLeads 4–0 on hardInformative
This eventReached the final here last yearSupports Medvedev D.
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysSupports Medvedev D.
ELO2 137
Hard ELO2 034
Last 108–2
Age30
Height198 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $52.3M2026 $2.9M
ELO2 085
Hard ELO1 915
Last 106–4
Age29
Height196 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $12.7M2026 $1.7M
Daniil Medvedev faces Alexander Bublik in the Almaty semi-final on hard. Daniil Medvedev holds the paper edge — ranked #5, leading the head-to-head 7–1, defending the title.
Key context
- Serve & return: Alexander Bublik brings the bigger serve (Serve Rating 60), Daniil Medvedev the stronger return game (Return Rating 81).
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Daniil Medvedev 147 games in 14 days, Alexander Bublik 107.
- Head-to-head: Daniil Medvedev leads the head-to-head 7–1, 4–0 on hard. Last met at Halle 2025.
Common opponents
13 shared · last 12 monthsMedvedev D. and Bublik A. faced 13 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Medvedev D. went 8–7 (53%) against them, Bublik A. 6–10 (38%). Medvedev D. came out better against 5 of 13 comparable opponents, Bublik A. against 2.
8–753%Medvedev D. · better vs 5Record vs common opponents6–1038%Bublik A. · better vs 2
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
19–20Sets18–26
191–194Games217–240
2–7Tiebreaks7–5
2–2Deciding sets2–4
vs Zverev A.#2L6-2 3-6 6-7Paris Masters · hardL6-7(6) 6-4 6-7(1)Shanghai Masters · hard
vs Alcaraz C.#3W6-3 7-6Indian Wells Masters · hardL3-6 0-6Monte Carlo Masters · clay
vs Tiafoe F.#9L6-7(1) 4-6 6-7(6)US Open · hardW4-6 7-6 7-6 4-6 6-3Wimbledon · grass
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- vs Jodar R.#11L3-6 4-6Shanghai Masters · hardL2-6 3-6Laver Cup - London · hard
- vs Paul T.#15W6-3 1-6 6-3Shanghai Masters · hardL4-6 6-3 7-6(4) 1-6 3-6US Open · hard
- vs Nakashima B.#17L7-6(3) 6-7(4) 1-6Cincinnati · hardW6-7(7) 6-3 7-6(5)Shanghai Masters · hard
- vs Tien L.#18L4-6 0-6 3-6Australian Open · hardL6-4 3-6 5-7Rome Masters · clay
vs Etcheverry T.#29W6-3 6-4Halle · grassW6-3 6-4Kitzbuhel · clay
vs Tsitsipas S.#39W6-4 7-5Shanghai Masters · hardL2-6 5-7Madrid Masters · clay
vs Berrettini M.#43L0-6 0-6Monte Carlo Masters · clayL4-6 4-6Miami Masters · hard
vs Halys Q.#46W6-7 6-3 6-4 6-2Australian Open · hardL7-6(4) 4-6 6-7(5)Gstaad · clay- vs Baez S.#49W6-4 6-0Indian Wells Masters · hardW6-1 6-2Rome Masters · clay
- vs Struff J.#58L6-7 6-7 5-7Wimbledon · grassW3-6 6-2Stuttgart · grass
Head-to-head
8 meetings · Medvedev D. leads 7–171
Grass: Bublik A. leads 1–0 · Clay: Medvedev D. leads 2–0 · Hard: Medvedev D. leads 4–0 · Carpet: Medvedev D. leads 1–0
- Bublik A.June 2025HalleGrass6-3 7-6
- Medvedev D.April 2024Madrid MastersClay7-6 6-4
- Medvedev D.February 2023DubaiHard6-4 6-2
- Medvedev D.August 2021Canada MastersHard4-6 6-3 6-4
- Medvedev D.July 2021Tokyo OlympicsHard6-4 7-6
Evidence
Medvedev D.Bublik A.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss8–2 (ahead)6–4
Season win rate73% (48–18) (ahead)60% (32–21)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO2137 (ahead)2085
Hard-court ELO2034 (ahead)1915
Serve vs returnLast 65 vs 50 matches
1st-serve points won76%77% (ahead)
Return points won41% (ahead)33%
Aces / match8.712.2 (ahead)
ClutchLast 65 vs 50 matches
Break points saved64%66% (ahead)
Draw
Odds
Cite this
Umpiry, "Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik — Almaty Semi-final", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-24/bublik-vs-medvedev-almaty-sf?utm_source=cite (as of 24 October 2026).