Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas

UMPIRY

AlmatySemi-finalHardSat 24 Oct · 15:00CENTER COURT · Next on

Nikoloz BasilashviliATP #128 · GEO23%

VSClear favourite · Tsitsipas S.

Stefanos Tsitsipas(7)ATP #39 · GRE77%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Tsitsipas S.

23%77%

Clear edge for Tsitsipas S. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 4 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Basilashvili N.4.8/10

Heavy underdog

Tsitsipas S.6.2/10

Even match

Why

Surface+194 Hard Elo edgeSupports Tsitsipas S.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1833Supports Tsitsipas S.

Recent run5-match win streakAgainst the prediction · Basilashvili N.

Head-to-headTrails 1–3 on hardInformative

Long matches2 three-setters in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Basilashvili N.

ELO1 869

Hard ELO1 748

Last 108–2

Age34

Height185 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $9.8M2026 $383K

ELO2 069

Hard ELO1 922

Last 108–2

Age28

Height193 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $38.2M2026 $1.4M

Nikoloz Basilashvili faces Stefanos Tsitsipas in the Almaty semi-final on hard. Stefanos Tsitsipas holds the paper edge — ranked #39, leading the head-to-head 3–1, a roughly 190-point hard Elo advantage. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

Freshness: Nikoloz Basilashvili comes in with 1 days of rest and 97 games in 14d, vs Stefanos Tsitsipas's 1 and 136.
Under pressure: In the tight moments, Stefanos Tsitsipas has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 86 vs 53).
Last match: Nikoloz Basilashvili dropped just 4 games past Adrian Mannarino.

Common opponents

4 shared · last 12 months

Basilashvili N. and Tsitsipas S. faced 4 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Basilashvili N. went 5–0 (100%) against them, Tsitsipas S. 3–1 (75%). Results against comparable opponents are close (1 : 0 better-results split).

5–0100%Basilashvili N. · better vs 1Record vs common opponents3–175%Tsitsipas S. · better vs 0

Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines

10–2Sets6–4

74–50Games51–53

2–2Tiebreaks3–0

2–0Deciding sets1–0

Only 4 common opponents — small sample, treat as indicative.

vs Shelton B.#4W6-4 6-7 6-3Rome Masters · clayL2-6 3-6 4-6US Open · hard
vs Hijikata R.#86W6-3 6-2Rome Masters · clayW6-4 6-3Tokyo · hard
vs Brooksby J.#99W6-4 7-6(4)Chengdu · hardW6-4 7-6(6)Winston-Salem · hard

Show 1 more ▾Show less ▴

vs Kypson P.#127W6-7 7-6 6-4Madrid Masters · clayW3-6 7-6 7-6Madrid Masters · clay

Head-to-head

4 meetings · Tsitsipas S. leads 3–1

Tsitsipas S.January 2022Atp CupHard4-1
Basilashvili N.October 2021Indian Wells MastersHard6-4 2-6 6-4
Tsitsipas S.September 2019BeijingHard4-6 6-3 6-2
Tsitsipas S.January 2019Australian OpenHard6-3 3-6 7-6 6-4

Evidence

Basilashvili N.Tsitsipas S.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss8–28–2

Season win rate51% (31–30)65% (39–21)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO18692069

Hard-court ELO17481922

Serve vs returnLast 51 vs 57 matches

1st-serve points won76%78%

Return points won36%34%

Aces / match7.37.8

ClutchLast 51 vs 57 matches

Break points saved59%64%

When it starts

CENTER COURT · Next on · Not before 15:00

1This match: Basilashvili N. v Tsitsipas S.This match
2Medvedev D. v Bublik A.Not before 18:00

Draw

Odds

Conditions

CENTER COURT · 15:00 local

SurfaceHard · fast

Forecast5°C · Clear

Wind9 km/h

Humidity32%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Basilashvili N.Tsitsipas S.

1Days since last match1

5Matches · 7 days3

97Games · 7 days65

5Matches · 14 days6

97Games · 14 days136

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas — Almaty Semi-final", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-24/basilashvili-vs-tsitsipas-almaty-sf?utm_source=cite (as of 24 October 2026).