Daniil Medvedev vs Stefanos Tsitsipas

UMPIRY

Shanghai MastersR16HardWed 14 Oct · 18:00STADIUM COURT · After 2 matches

Daniil Medvedev(5)ATP #5 · RUS60%

VSSlight edge · Medvedev D.

Stefanos TsitsipasATP #43 · GRE40%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winSlight edge · Medvedev D.

60%40%

Medvedev D. favoured, but within the range where form on the day decides.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Medvedev D.7.8/10

Dominant favourite

Tsitsipas S.6.3/10

Marginal edge

Why

Surface+160 Hard Elo edgeSupports Medvedev D.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1977Supports Medvedev D.

Recent run3-match win streakAgainst the prediction · Tsitsipas S.

Head-to-headLeads 8–4 on hardSupports Medvedev D.

This eventReached the semis here last yearSupports Medvedev D.

ELO2 123

Hard ELO2 028

Last 109–1

Age30

Height198 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $52.3M2026 $2.9M

ELO2 070

Hard ELO1 919

Last 108–2

Age28

Height193 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $38.2M2026 $1.4M

Daniil Medvedev faces Stefanos Tsitsipas in the Shanghai Masters round of 16 on hard. Daniil Medvedev is the paper favourite — ranked #5, leading the head-to-head 10–5, defending last year's semi-final — but Stefanos Tsitsipas rides a 3-match win streak. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

Serve & return: Stefanos Tsitsipas leads on Serve Rating (61), Daniil Medvedev on Return Rating (79).
Head-to-head: Daniil Medvedev leads the head-to-head 10–5, 8–4 on hard. Last met at Doha 2026.
Last match: Stefanos Tsitsipas dropped the opening set before beating Taylor Fritz 3–6 7–5 6–3.

Common opponents

8 shared · last 12 months

All 8 opponents →

Medvedev D. and Tsitsipas S. faced 8 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Medvedev D. went 6–3 (67%) against them, Tsitsipas S. 6–2 (75%). Results against comparable opponents are close (1 : 1 better-results split).

6–367%Medvedev D. · better vs 1Record vs common opponents6–275%Tsitsipas S. · better vs 1

Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines

16–7Sets13–7

123–105Games105–88

2–0Tiebreaks1–0

0–1Deciding sets2–0

vs Djokovic N.#11L5-7 3-5Beijing · hardL3-6 4-6 2-6Wimbledon · grass
vs Cerundolo F.#20L0-6 6-4 5-7Miami Masters · hardL5-7 4-6Monte Carlo Masters · clay
vs Etcheverry T.#31W6-3 6-4Halle · grassW4-6 6-3 6-4Tokyo · hard

Show 5 more ▾Show less ▴

vs Rinderknech A.#33W6-4 6-4 6-4US Open · hardW6-3 3-6 6-3Gstaad · clay
vs Merida Aguilar D.#44W3-6 6-3 7-5 6-2Wimbledon · grassW6-4 6-2Madrid Masters · clay
vs Gaston H.#89W6-4 6-2 6-4US Open · hardW6-1 6-4 6-2Wimbledon · grass
vs Damm M.#104L5-7 3-6Winston-Salem · hardW6-4 6-4Montreal · hard
vs Royer V.#105W7-6(6) 6-3Hangzhou · hardW7-6 7-5Cincinnati · hard

Head-to-head

15 meetings · Medvedev D. leads 10–5

Full H2H →

105

Hard: Medvedev D. leads 8–4 · Clay: Medvedev D. leads 2–1

Tsitsipas S.February 2026DohaHard6-3 6-4
Medvedev D.October 2024Shanghai MastersHard7-6 6-3
Medvedev D.October 2023ViennaHard6-4 7-6
Medvedev D.May 2023Rome MastersClay7-5 7-5
Tsitsipas S.November 2022Tour FinalsHard6-3 6-7 7-6

Evidence

Medvedev D.Tsitsipas S.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss9–18–2

Season win rate72% (44–17)64% (36–20)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO21232070

Hard-court ELO20281919

Serve vs returnLast 56 vs 52 matches

1st-serve points won76%78%

Return points won41%34%

Aces / match9.17.7

ClutchLast 56 vs 52 matches

Break points saved64%64%

When it starts

STADIUM COURT · After 2 matches · Not before 18:00

1Van De Zandschulp B. v Jodar R.Starts at 12:00
2Ruud C. v Auger-Aliassime F.Followed by
3This match: Medvedev D. v Tsitsipas S.This match
4Paul T. v Bergs Z.Followed by

Draw

Odds

Conditions

STADIUM COURT · 18:00 local

SurfaceHard · fast

Forecast21°C · Overcast

Wind8 km/h

Humidity57%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Medvedev D.Tsitsipas S.

1Days since last match1

2Matches · 7 days3

46Games · 7 days70

7Matches · 14 days6

147Games · 14 days151

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Daniil Medvedev vs Stefanos Tsitsipas — Shanghai Masters Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-14/medvedev-vs-tsitsipas-shanghai-masters-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 14 October 2026).