Daniil Medvedev vs Arthur RinderknechUS Open Round of 32

US Open · ATP · Round of 32
#8ATP
1977ELO
1962Hard ELO
30 yrs · 198 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLWLLWW
3 — 0
Sets
Friday, 4 September 2026 ·
hard
Grandstand · 2nd on
#29ATP
1780ELO
1748Hard ELO
31 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLLWWLLWL
Medvedev D.
6-4 6-4 6-4
Rinderknech A.
Medvedev D.
6663
Rinderknech A.
4440

Daniil Medvedev defeated Arthur Rinderknech in the Round of 32 at the US Open, winning in straight sets 6-4, 6-4, 6-4. Medvedev and Rinderknech served five aces apiece, while Medvedev made four double faults to Rinderknech's one. Medvedev converted all of his break points, compared to Rinderknech's 50%, and won three service breaks to Rinderknech's one.

Generated automatically from Umpiry match data.

Around the match

  • We have no idea how Carlos' wrist is going to feel, body is going to feel going later into the tournament, but he's definitely a top favourite for the title.

    Medvedev D.Sportsnet.ca

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above. Lines marked “Umpiry summary” are written by Umpiry from the linked article, not quoted from it.

Key context

  • Match story: Daniil Medvedev edged a tight contest from start to finish — 6–4 6–4 6–4.

Head to head

11
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-10-01Shanghai MastersSFhardArthur Rinderknech4-6 6-2 6-4
2022-08-29US OpenR64hardDaniil Medvedev6-2 7-5 6-3

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
65%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
74%
77%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
53%
Service points won·Even
65%
68%
Return points won·Slight edge
41%
33%
Break points saved·Slight edge
64%
69%
Aces / match·Dominant
7.9
12.4
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.9
3.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (38 vs 28). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
96
45
Break points saved·Even
99
98
Break points won·Dominant
98
2
Deciding sets·Slight edge
98
88
Tiebreaks·Dominant
95
27

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC
Medvedev D.75%
Rinderknech A.25%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Medvedev D. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.0
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.7+215 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.3Hard Elo 1748
7.5Overall Elo 1977
ELO gap
2.5Overall Elo 1780
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
5.35 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.26 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
6.0Reached the R128 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the last 16 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
63
77

Medvedev D.: 3 days rest · 3 matches, 94 games (7d) · Rinderknech A.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 63 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
30°CClear
Wind 22 km/hHumidity 42%

Draw