Daniil Medvedev vs Frances TiafoeUS Open Round of 16

US Open · ATP · Round of 16
#8ATP
1977ELO
1962Hard ELO
30 yrs · 198 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWLLWLLWW
0 — 3
Sets
Sunday, 6 September 2026 ·
hard
Louis Armstrong Stadium · 3rd on
#12ATP
1918ELO
1861Hard ELO
28 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWLWWWWW
Medvedev D.
6-7 4-6 6-7
Tiafoe F.
Medvedev D.
61460
Tiafoe F.
77673

Frances Tiafoe defeated Daniil Medvedev in the US Open Round of 16. The match ended with a score of 7-6, 6-4, 7-6 in favor of Tiafoe. Key stats included Tiafoe's 3 aces and 0 double faults compared to Medvedev's 8 aces and 3 double faults; Tiafoe converted 57% of break points while Medvedev converted 38%, and Tiafoe secured 4 service breaks to Medvedev's 3.

Generated automatically from Umpiry match data.

Key context

Head to head

62
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-01-04BrisbaneR16hardDaniil Medvedev6-3 6-2
2024-09-20Laver CupRRhardFrances Tiafoe3-6 6-4
2023-03-06Indian Wells MastersSFhardDaniil Medvedev7-5 7-6
2021-03-22Miami MastersR16hardDaniil Medvedev6-4 6-3
2020-08-31US OpenR16hardDaniil Medvedev6-4 6-1 6-0
2020-01-20Australian OpenR128hardDaniil Medvedev6-3 4-6 6-4 6-2
2019-07-29WashingtonR16hardDaniil Medvedev6-2 7-5
2015-05-17NiceQ2clayFrances Tiafoe6-3 6-2

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
65%
61%
1st serve points won·Even
74%
75%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
49%
54%
Service points won·Even
65%
67%
Return points won·Slight edge
41%
35%
Break points saved·Even
64%
68%
Aces / match·Slight edge
7.9
7.0
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.9
2.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (38 vs 43). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
96
75
Break points saved·Even
99
97
Break points won·Dominant
98
45
Deciding sets·Slight edge
98
88
Tiebreaks·Even
95
98

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 18:50 UTC
Medvedev D.64%
Tiafoe F.36%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Medvedev D. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.8
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
6.3+101 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.7Hard Elo 1861
5.7Overall Elo 1977
ELO gap
4.3Overall Elo 1918
5.2Split 1–1 on hard
H2H
4.8Split 1–1 on hard
6.46 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
8.38 of last 10 on hard
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
0.04 three-setters in 14 days
Context
6.0Reached the R128 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R32 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
63
35

Medvedev D.: 3 days rest · 3 matches, 94 games (7d) · Tiafoe F.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 153 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
21°CMainly clear
Wind 11 km/hHumidity 73%

Draw