Frances Tiafoe vs Marin CilicMontreal Round of 64

Montreal · ATP · Round of 64
#20ATP
1918ELO
1861Hard ELO
$1.9MYTD
$18MCAREER
28 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWWWWWWW
2 — 1
Sets
Wednesday, 5 August 2026 ·
hard
CENTER COURT · 4th on
#85ATP
1800ELO
1762Hard ELO
$776kYTD
$33MCAREER
37 yrs · 198 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLLLWWLLLW
Tiafoe F.
5-7 6-2 6-2
Cilic M.
Tiafoe F.
5662
Cilic M.
7221

Frances Tiafoe defeated Marin Cilic in the Round of 64 at the Montreal tournament, 5-7, 6-2, 6-2. Tiafoe and Cilic served an equal number of aces, nine each, but Tiafoe committed fewer double faults, two to Cilic's four. Tiafoe converted 57 percent of break points, compared to 17 percent for Cilic, and won four service breaks to Cilic's one.

Key context

Head to head

02
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2018-09-14Davis Cup WG SF: CRO vs USARRclayMarin Cilic6-1 6-3 7-6
2017-09-22Laver CupRRhardMarin Cilic7-6 7-6

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
61%
58%
1st serve points won·Even
75%
77%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
54%
48%
Service points won·Even
67%
65%
Return points won·Even
35%
35%
Break points saved·Slight edge
68%
59%
Aces / match·Dominant
7.0
10.2
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.1
3.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (43 vs 23). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
74
69
Break points saved·Even
97
98
Break points won·Clear edge
45
32
Deciding sets·Even
86
89
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
97
90

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 22:50 UTC
Tiafoe F.75%
Cilic M.25%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Tiafoe F. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.2+100 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.8Hard Elo 1762
6.5Overall Elo 1918
ELO gap
3.5Overall Elo 1800
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
5.96 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.46 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
83
85

Tiafoe F.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 38 games (7d) · Cilic M.: 6 days rest · 2 matches, 48 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
25°CClear
Wind 8 km/hHumidity 66%

Draw