Sho Shimabukuro vs Marin CilicMontreal Round of 128

Montreal · ATP · Round of 128
#94ATP
1672ELO
1606Hard ELO
$268kYTD
$1.0MCAREER
29 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLLLWLWWWW
0 — 2
Sets
Tuesday, 4 August 2026 ·
hard
Court 2 · 2nd on
#85ATP
1800ELO
1762Hard ELO
$776kYTD
$33MCAREER
37 yrs · 198 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWWLLLWL
Shimabukuro S.
6-7 1-6
Cilic M.
Shimabukuro S.
6210
Cilic M.
7762

Marin Cilic defeated Sho Shimabukuro in the Round of 128 at the Montreal tournament, winning 7-6, 6-1 on hard courts. Cilic served 2 aces and committed 2 double faults, while Shimabukuro had 6 aces and no double faults. Cilic converted 75% of his break points and won 80% of his first-serve points, securing 3 service breaks to Shimabukuro's 0.

Key context

  • Match story: Marin Cilic came through a tight passage before pulling clear — 7–6 6–1.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
58%
58%
1st serve points won·Even
73%
77%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
53%
48%
Service points won·Even
64%
65%
Return points won·Even
36%
35%
Break points saved·Slight edge
64%
59%
Aces / match·Dominant
6.4
10.2
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.6
3.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (32 vs 23). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
42
66
Break points saved·Slight edge
88
97
Break points won·Slight edge
31
23
Deciding sets·Dominant
50
90
Tiebreaks·Dominant
38
88

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 23:50 UTC
Shimabukuro S.46%
Cilic M.54%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.1Hard Elo 1606
Surface ELO
6.9+155 Hard Elo edge
3.4Overall Elo 1672
ELO gap
6.6Overall Elo 1800
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
5.15 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.45 of last 10 on hard
Win streak
0.0Lost last 3
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Surface transition
7.0Grass → Hard
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
77

Shimabukuro S.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 52 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
18°CMainly clear
Wind 16 km/hHumidity 80%

Draw