Daniil Medvedev vs Tommy Paul — Shanghai Masters Quarter-final
Why
Surface+81 Hard Elo edgeSupports Medvedev D.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1977Supports Medvedev D.
Head-to-headLeads 3–0 on hardSupports Medvedev D.
This eventReached the semis here last yearSupports Medvedev D.
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Paul T.
ELO2 133
Hard ELO2 037
Last 109–1
Age30
Height198 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $52.3M2026 $2.9M
ELO2 146
Hard ELO1 976
Last 107–3
Age29
Height185 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $15.2M2026 $2.2M
Daniil Medvedev faces Tommy Paul in the Shanghai Masters quarter-final on hard. Daniil Medvedev holds the paper edge — ranked #5, leading the head-to-head 4–1, defending last year's semi-final.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Daniil Medvedev 147 games in 14 days, Tommy Paul 57.
- Serve & return: Tommy Paul leads on Serve Rating (48), Daniil Medvedev on Return Rating (80).
- Head-to-head: Daniil Medvedev leads the head-to-head 4–1, 3–0 on hard. Last met at Indian Wells Masters 2025.
Common opponents
13 shared · last 12 monthsMedvedev D. and Paul T. faced 13 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Medvedev D. went 8–6 (57%) against them, Paul T. 7–8 (47%). Results against comparable opponents are close (4 : 2 better-results split).
8–657%Medvedev D. · better vs 4Record vs common opponents7–847%Paul T. · better vs 2
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
19–14Sets18–20
166–160Games189–186
4–3Tiebreaks3–3
2–3Deciding sets1–2
vs Zverev A.#2L6-2 3-6 6-7Paris Masters · hardW4-6 7-6(6) 6-4Cincinnati · hard
vs Alcaraz C.#3W6-3 7-6Indian Wells Masters · hardL6-7 4-6 5-7Australian Open · hard
vs Cobolli F.#7L3-6 7-5 4-6Madrid Masters · clayL6-2 3-6 4-6Cincinnati · hard
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vs Tien L.#16L4-6 0-6 3-6Australian Open · hardL3-6 2-6Montreal · hard
vs Cerundolo F.#20L0-6 6-4 5-7Miami Masters · hardL7-6 4-6 3-6London · grass
vs Tabilo A.#30W6-4 6-2Indian Wells Masters · hardL1-6 2-6Tokyo · hard- vs Etcheverry T.#31W6-3 6-4Halle · grassW6-1 6-3Miami Masters · hard
vs Van De Zandschulp B.#41L3-6 6-7(5)Montreal · hardW6-3London · grass- vs Tirante T.#54W6-3 6-2Rome Masters · clayL5-7 4-6Madrid Masters · clay
vs Majchrzak K.#70L1-6s Hertogenbosch · grassL5-7 6-7(4)Washington · hard
vs Wong C.#101W6-3 6-7(2) 6-3Hangzhou · hardW6-7(3) 6-1 6-3 6-3US Open · hard
vs Royer V.#105W7-6(6) 6-3Hangzhou · hardW6-4 7-6(5)Montreal · hard- vs Sonego L.#87Hard to compareW3-6 7-6 6-4Paris Masters · hardW6-3 6-2 6-4Roland Garros · clay
Head-to-head
5 meetings · Medvedev D. leads 4–141
Hard: Medvedev D. leads 3–0 · Clay: level 1–1
- Medvedev D.March 2025Indian Wells MastersHard6-4 6-0
- Paul T.May 2024Rome MastersClay6-1 6-4
- Medvedev D.March 2024Indian Wells MastersHard1-6 7-6 6-2
- Medvedev D.September 2023BeijingHard6-2 6-1
- Medvedev D.May 2021Roland GarrosClay3-6 6-1 6-4 6-3
Evidence
Medvedev D.Paul T.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss9–1 (ahead)7–3
Season win rate73% (45–17) (ahead)69% (42–19)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO21332146 (ahead)
Hard-court ELO2037 (ahead)1976
Serve vs returnLast 61 vs 59 matches
1st-serve points won75% (ahead)74%
Return points won41% (ahead)38%
Aces / match8.8 (ahead)6.7
ClutchLast 61 vs 59 matches
Break points saved64%65% (ahead)
Draw
Odds
Cite this
Umpiry, "Daniil Medvedev vs Tommy Paul — Shanghai Masters Quarter-final", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-16/medvedev-vs-paul-shanghai-masters-qf?utm_source=cite (as of 16 October 2026).