Coleman Wong vs Tommy Paul — US Open Round of 128

US Open · ATP · Round of 128
HKGQ
Coleman Wong
#94ATP
1602ELO
1593Hard ELO
$287kYTD
$1.2MCAREER
22 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWLWWLWWL
—
Sets
Sunday, 30 August 2026 ·
hard
Tommy Paul
USA20
Tommy Paul
#21ATP
1949ELO
1881Hard ELO
$1.7MYTD
$15MCAREER
29 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWWLWLLWW
Wong C.
vs
Paul T.

Coleman Wong faces Tommy Paul in the US Open round of 128 on hard. Tommy Paul is the paper favourite — ranked #21, defending last year's round of 32, a roughly 290-point hard Elo advantage — but Coleman Wong arrives in form, winning 5 of their last 7 on hard to Tommy Paul's 4.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTC
Wong C.12%
Paul T.88%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Paul T. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

  • Under pressure: In the tight moments, Tommy Paul has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 90 vs 25).
  • Freshness: Coleman Wong comes in with 2 days of rest and 130 games in 14d, vs Tommy Paul's 9 and 120.
  • Stage: Coleman Wong defends last year's round of 32; Tommy Paul defends last year's round of 32.

Common opponents

Last 12 months
4 common opponents · Wong C. 1–4 · Paul T. 2–2 · small sample
Both lost · same surface · 6 months apart▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Wong C.
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Paul T.
7.4
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
1.4Hard Elo 1593
Surface ELO
8.6+288 Hard Elo edge
0.7Overall Elo 1602
ELO gap
9.3Overall Elo 1948
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.57 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.67 of last 10 on hard
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
Context
6.0Reached the R32 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R32 here last year
Opponent rise
5.0Opponent hot: 7 of last 10

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

43 vs 37 matches

Statistics

This season
Wong C.Paul T.
1st serve in·Even
61%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
72%
75%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
50%
56%
Service points won·Even
64%
68%
Return points won·Even
35%
38%
Break points saved·Even
66%
62%
Aces / match·Clear edge
9.7
6.9
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.1
1.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (43 vs 37). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Wong C.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Paul T.

Paul T.serving92% hold

wins 72% of points on serve vs Wong C.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Wong C.Paul T.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
25
90
Break points saved·Slight edge
90
97
Break points won·Dominant
11
88
Deciding sets·Dominant
11
98
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
82
90

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Wong C.Paul T.
Freshness·Clear edge
61
82

Wong C.: 2 days rest · 4 matches, 84 games (7d) · Paul T.: 9 days rest · 4 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
27°COvercast
Wind 13 km/hHumidity 73%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw