Daniil Medvedev vs Hugo Gaston — US Open Round of 128

US Open · ATP · Round of 128
Daniil Medvedev
RUS7
Daniil Medvedev
#8ATP
1977ELO
1962Hard ELO
$2.5MYTD
$52MCAREER
30 yrs · 198 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLWLLWWLWW
—
Sets
Sunday, 30 August 2026 ·
hard
Hugo Gaston
FRAQ
Hugo Gaston
#88ATP
1622ELO
1628Hard ELO
$376kYTD
$4.0MCAREER
25 yrs · 173 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
WWWLWWLLLW
Medvedev D.
vs
Gaston H.

Daniil Medvedev faces Hugo Gaston in the US Open round of 128 on hard. Daniil Medvedev is the paper favourite — ranked #8, leading the head-to-head 1–0, defending last year's round of 128 — but Hugo Gaston arrives in form, winning 3 of their last 4 on hard to Daniil Medvedev's 1.

Around the match

  • “I would rather take up curling or play pickleball than tennis.”

    Medvedev D.Tennishead ↗

  • “even contemplated taking up pickleball during his defeat at Winston-Salem”

    Medvedev D.Flashscore.com ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTC
Medvedev D.85%
Gaston H.15%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Medvedev D. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
7 common opponents · Medvedev D. 3–5 · Gaston H. 1–7
Both lost · same surface, 44 days apart▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Medvedev D.
7.0
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Gaston H.
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
9.2+334 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
0.8Hard Elo 1628
9.4Overall Elo 1977
ELO gap
0.6Overall Elo 1622
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
4.15 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
7.37 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
6.0Reached the R128 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R128 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

38 vs 35 matches

Statistics

This season
Medvedev D.Gaston H.
1st serve in·Clear edge
65%
53%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
74%
67%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
51%
Service points won·Slight edge
65%
60%
Return points won·Even
41%
40%
Break points saved·Even
64%
60%
Aces / match·Dominant
7.9
2.5
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.9
2.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (38 vs 35). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Medvedev D.serving82% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Gaston H.

Gaston H.serving70% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Medvedev D.

Serve advantage — Medvedev D.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Medvedev D.Gaston H.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
96
59
Break points saved·Clear edge
99
87
Break points won·Dominant
98
35
Deciding sets·Clear edge
98
77
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
96
82

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Medvedev D.Gaston H.
Freshness·Clear edge
84
61

Medvedev D.: 3 days rest · 1 match, 21 games (7d) · Gaston H.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 82 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
26°COvercast
Wind 16 km/hHumidity 80%

Head to head

1–0
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2021-11-01Paris MastersQFhardDaniil Medvedev7-6 6-4

Draw