Hugo Gaston vs Colton Smith — US Open Qualifying Round of 32

US Open · ATP · Qualifying Round of 32
Hugo Gaston
FRA
Hugo Gaston
#88ATP
1622ELO
1628Hard ELO
$376kYTD
$4.0MCAREER
25 yrs · 173 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWWLLLWW
2 — 1
Sets
Friday, 28 August 2026 ·
hard
Court 12 · 2nd on
USA
Colton Smith
#221ATP
1577ELO
1566Hard ELO
$154kYTD
$480kCAREER
23 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLLLLLWWL
Gaston H.
1-6 6-4 6-2
Smith C.
Gaston H.
1662
Smith C.
6421

Hugo Gaston defeated Colton Smith in the second round of US Open qualifying, 1-6, 6-4, 6-2. Gaston served four aces to Smith's three and committed one double fault to Smith's five. Gaston converted 44 percent of his break points, while Smith converted 75 percent, but Gaston won four service breaks to Smith's three.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Gaston H.Smith C.
1st serve in·Clear edge
53%
65%
1st serve points won·Even
67%
66%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
53%
Service points won·Even
60%
61%
Return points won·Even
40%
38%
Break points saved·Even
60%
64%
Aces / match·Slight edge
2.5
3.6
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.1
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (35 vs 21). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Gaston H.Smith C.
Clutch Rating·Even
59
62
Break points saved·Slight edge
87
94
Break points won·Clear edge
35
52
Deciding sets·Clear edge
77
92
Tiebreaks·Dominant
82
8

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC
Gaston H.60%
Smith C.40%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Gaston H. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Gaston H.
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Smith C.
4.8
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.8+63 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.2Hard Elo 1566
5.6Overall Elo 1622
ELO gap
4.4Overall Elo 1577
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.46 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
4.34 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
6.0Reached the R128 here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Gaston H.Smith C.
Freshness·Slight edge
61
53

Gaston H.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 82 games (7d) · Smith C.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 85 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
27°CMainly clear
Wind 8 km/hHumidity 61%

Draw