Alexander Bublik vs Daniil MedvedevHalle Final

Halle · ATP · Final
#11ATP
1889ELO
1802Grass ELO
$1.2MYTD
$12MCAREER
29 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLLWWLL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 16 June 2025
grass
#9ATP
1977ELO
1855Grass ELO
$2.5MYTD
$52MCAREER
30 yrs · 198 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWLWWL
Bublik A.
6-3 7-6
Medvedev D.
Bublik A.
6772
Medvedev D.
3640

Alexander Bublik defeated Daniil Medvedev 6-3 7-6 in the Halle final on grass. The upset overturned the form book — Daniil Medvedev came in ranked #9, leading the head-to-head 6–0, defending last year's round of 16. Alexander Bublik claimed a first win over Daniil Medvedev in seven meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 6–1.

Key context

Head to head

06
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-04-22Madrid MastersR16clayDaniil Medvedev7-6(3) 6-4
2023-02-27DubaiR16hardDaniil Medvedev6-4 6-2
2021-08-09Canada MastersR32hardDaniil Medvedev4-6 6-3 6-4
2021-07-24Tokyo OlympicsR64hardDaniil Medvedev6-4 7-6(8)
2021-05-31Roland GarrosR128clayDaniil Medvedev6-3 6-3 7-5
2016-09-19St. PetersburgR32carpetDaniil Medvedev6-4 6-0

Serve vs return

This season
Bublik A.serving87% hold

wins 68% of points on serve vs Medvedev D.

Medvedev D.serving93% hold

wins 73% of points on serve vs Bublik A.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
62%
63%
1st serve points won·Even
77%
75%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
49%
Service points won·Even
67%
66%
Return points won·Slight edge
35%
41%
Break points saved·Slight edge
67%
61%
Aces / match·Dominant
10.9
7.9
Double faults / match·Slight edge
4.5
4.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (91 vs 90). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
88
96
Break points saved·Even
99
100
Break points won·Dominant
67
99
Deciding sets·Even
99
99
Tiebreaks·Even
96
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.4Grass Elo 1802
Surface ELO
5.6+53 Grass Elo edge
4.1Overall Elo 1889
ELO gap
5.9Overall Elo 1977
5.0
H2H
5.0
5.9
Surface form
6.6
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
Minutes 14d
7.8
Prev. match
8.0
3.0
Surface transition
Context
6.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
61
79

Bublik A.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 88 games (7d) · Medvedev D.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 38 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
20°CDrizzle
Wind 13 km/hHumidity 62%