Jan Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik

Stuttgart · ATP · Round of 16

GER

Jan Lennard Struff

#77ATP

1684ELO

1616Grass ELO

$325kYTD

$13MCAREER

36 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WLWLLLLLWL

—

Sets

Wednesday, 10 June 2026 · 12:30

grass

CENTER COURT · 2nd on

KAZ

Alexander Bublik

#11ATP

1920ELO

1829Grass ELO

$1.1MYTD

$12MCAREER

28 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

LLWWLWLLLW

Jan Lennard Struff faces Alexander Bublik in the Stuttgart round of 16 on grass. They have met 7 times, Jan Lennard Struff leading 4–3, Alexander Bublik ahead 1–0 on grass.

Key context

Head-to-head: Jan Lennard Struff leads the head-to-head 4–3, 0–1 on grass. Last met at Roland Garros 2026.
Fatigue load: Jan Lennard Struff carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 0 in the past fortnight.
Stage: Jan Lennard Struff defends last year's round of 16.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 06:20 UTC

Struff J.18%

Bublik A.82%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Bublik A. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Struff J.

4.5

Heavy underdogUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Bublik A.

6.3

Marginal edgeUmpiry Score

Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)

Form & Matchup

2.3Grass Elo 1616

Surface ELO

7.7+214 Grass Elo edge

2.1Overall Elo 1684

ELO gap

7.9Overall Elo 1920

3.0Trails 0–1 on grass

H2H

7.0Leads 1–0 on grass

6.06 of last 10 on grass

Surface form

7.27 of last 10 on grass

Win streak

0.0Lost last 2

Fatigue & Travel

4.02 three-setters in 14 days

3-set count

7.5Home country · 14/24 here

Country comfort

Surface transition

3.0Clay → Grass

Context

6.0Reached the last 16 here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

When it starts

2nd on CENTER COURT · not before Not Before 12:30 · 1 match still to finish ahead

Conditions

Weather forecast

17°COvercast

Wind 2 km/hHumidity 46%

Head to head

4–3

Date	Tournament	Round	Surface	Winner	Score
2026-05-26	Roland Garros	R128	clay	Jan Lennard Struff	5-7 7.8-6.6 4-6 5-7
2026-02-23	Dubai	R32	hard	Alexander Bublik	6-3 6-4
2026-02-09	Rotterdam	R16	hard	Alexander Bublik	7-6(2) 4-6 6-3
2024-05-27	Roland Garros	R64	clay	Jan Lennard Struff	6-2 6-2 6-3
2023-06-19	Halle	R16	grass	Alexander Bublik	6-3 6-7(4) 6-3
2021-10-25	St. Petersburg	R16	carpet	Jan Lennard Struff	6-4 6-3
2018-04-23	Budapest	R16	clay	Jan Lennard Struff	6-1 6-4