Ajla Tomljanovic vs Mariam Bolkvadze — Wimbledon Round of 128
Tomljanovic A.
Ajla Tomljanovic faces Mariam Bolkvadze in the Wimbledon round of 128 on grass. Ajla Tomljanovic is the paper favourite — ranked #98, defending last year's round of 128, a roughly 270-point grass Elo advantage — but Mariam Bolkvadze rides a 3-match win streak. Recent grass form is closely matched.
Around the match
“She gave me a little pep talk, which was nice. She said that I can beat anyone and that she'll be just as nervous, probably coming back, first match at Wimbledon's not going to be easy.”
Tomljanovic A.WTA Tennis ↗
Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 15:21 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · Tomljanovic A. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Ajla Tomljanovic comes in with 4 days of rest and 100 games in 14d, vs Mariam Bolkvadze's 3 and 69.
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, Ajla Tomljanovic has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 72 vs 50).
- Stage: Ajla Tomljanovic defends last year's round of 128.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (18 vs 10). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadTomljanovic A.: 4 days rest · 3 matches, 82 games (7d) · Bolkvadze M.: 3 days rest · 3 matches, 69 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.