Petra Marcinko vs Madison KeysEastbourne Semi-final

Eastbourne · WTA · Semi-final
#45WTA
1745ELO
1602Grass ELO
$468kYTD
$956kCAREER
20 yrs · 176 cm
Last 10 · pre-match
WLLWWWLWLW
0 — 1
Sets
Retired
Friday, 26 June 2026 ·
grass
CENTRE COURT · 2nd on
#23WTA
1987ELO
1843Grass ELO
$1.1MYTD
$24MCAREER
31 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWLW
Marcinko P.
1-6
Keys M.
Marcinko P.
10
Keys M.
61

Madison Keys advanced when Petra Marcinko retired 6-1 in the Eastbourne semi-final.

Around the match

  • It's always bittersweet winning a match this way and hopefully she gets better for Wimbledon. She's an incredible young player, has lots of years ahead of her so I'm sure we'll see lots of her.

    Keys M.LTA

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Marcinko P.serving71% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Keys M.

Keys M.serving81% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Marcinko P.

Serve advantage — Keys M.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
58%
66%
1st serve points won·Even
63%
67%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
42%
47%
Service points won·Slight edge
54%
60%
Return points won·Even
45%
45%
Break points saved·Clear edge
46%
65%
Aces / match·Clear edge
2.4
4.0
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.3
2.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (19 vs 18). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
72
94
Break points saved·Dominant
54
96
Break points won·Slight edge
95
90
Deciding sets·Even
93
97
Tiebreaks·
96

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 12:22 UTC
Marcinko P.14%
Keys M.86%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Keys M. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.4
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
6.8
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
0.9Grass Elo 1452
Surface ELO
9.1+324 Grass Elo edge
2.4Overall Elo 1704
ELO gap
7.6Overall Elo 1957
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.55 of last 9 on grass
Surface form
7.57 of last 10 on grass
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
0.05 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Country comfort
6.5Won 75% in GBR (57)
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
89
84

Marcinko P.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 27 games (7d) · Keys M.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 23 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
23°COvercast
Wind 28 km/hHumidity 72%