Caty Mcnally vs Petra MarcinkoEastbourne Quarter-final

Eastbourne · WTA · Quarter-final
#70WTA
1817ELO
1707Grass ELO
$711kYTD
$3.7MCAREER
24 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWLWWLW
1 — 2
Sets
Thursday, 25 June 2026 ·
grass
#72WTA
1745ELO
1602Grass ELO
$588kYTD
$1.1MCAREER
20 yrs · 176 cm
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWLLLWWL
Mcnally C.
3-6 6-4 4-6
Marcinko P.
Mcnally C.
3641
Marcinko P.
6462

Petra Marcinko defeated Caty Mcnally in the Eastbourne quarterfinals, winning 6-3, 4-6, 6-4. Marcinko hit 4 aces and 5 double faults, while Mcnally had 3 aces and 8 double faults. Marcinko won 68% of her first-serve points and converted 40% of her break points, compared to Mcnally's 62% and 43%, respectively; Marcinko secured 4 service breaks to Mcnally's 3.

Key context

  • Match story: Petra Marcinko closed it out in three sets, 6–3 4–6 6–4.

Head to head

20
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-05-15W75 Zagreb 1QFclayCaty Mcnally6-1 7-5
2022-10-13W60 TrnavaR16hardCaty Mcnally7-6(7) 6-1

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Clear edge
72%
59%
1st serve points won·Even
60%
64%
2nd serve points won·Even
43%
40%
Service points won·Even
55%
54%
Return points won·Even
45%
45%
Break points saved·Slight edge
58%
47%
Aces / match·Slight edge
1.2
2.0
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.1
4.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (32 vs 34). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
45
72
Break points saved·Clear edge
31
54
Break points won·Even
94
95
Deciding sets·Dominant
33
93
Tiebreaks·
79

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:50 UTC
Mcnally C.71%
Marcinko P.29%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Mcnally C. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.4+32 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.6Grass Elo 1504
6.0Overall Elo 1698
ELO gap
4.0Overall Elo 1617
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
7.78 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
5.74 of last 8 on grass
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
0.04 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
85
91

Mcnally C.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 38 games (7d) · Marcinko P.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 30 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
28°CMainly clear
Wind 19 km/hHumidity 65%

Draw