Petra Marcinko vs Madison Keys — Eastbourne Semi-final

Eastbourne · WTA · Semi-final
Petra Marcinko
CRO
Petra Marcinko
#53WTA
1745ELO
1602Grass ELO
$588kYTD
$1.1MCAREER
20 yrs · 176 cm
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLWWWLW
0 — 1
Sets
Retired
Friday, 26 June 2026 ·
grass
Madison Keys
USA2
Madison Keys
#22WTA
1987ELO
1843Grass ELO
$1.5MYTD
$25MCAREER
31 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLLWWWWWWW
Marcinko P.
1-6
Keys M.
Marcinko P.
10
Keys M.
61

Madison Keys advanced to the Eastbourne semifinals after Petra Marcinko retired during their match, trailing 0-0 in the second set. Keys had taken the first set 6-1. At the time of Marcinko's retirement, Keys led in several categories, including service breaks 3-0.

Around the match

  • “It's always bittersweet winning a match this way and hopefully she gets better for Wimbledon. She's an incredible young player, has lots of years ahead of her so I'm sure we'll see lots of her.”

    Keys M.LTA ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Marcinko P.Keys M.
1st serve in·Slight edge
59%
65%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
64%
69%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
40%
47%
Service points won·Slight edge
54%
61%
Return points won·Even
45%
44%
Break points saved·Clear edge
47%
65%
Aces / match·Clear edge
2.0
3.9
Double faults / match·Clear edge
4.9
3.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (34 vs 33). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Marcinko P.Keys M.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
72
91
Break points saved·Dominant
54
85
Break points won·Even
95
92
Deciding sets·Even
93
94
Tiebreaks·
—
95

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 10:50 UTC
Marcinko P.22%
Keys M.78%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Keys M. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Marcinko P.
4.6
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Keys M.
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
2.9Grass Elo 1502
Surface ELO
7.1+164 Grass Elo edge
1.6Overall Elo 1616
ELO gap
8.4Overall Elo 1888
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.45 of last 9 on grass
Surface form
7.67 of last 10 on grass
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
0.05 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Marcinko P.Keys M.
Freshness·Clear edge
100
87

Marcinko P.: 20 days rest · Keys M.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 15 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
23°COvercast
Wind 28 km/hHumidity 72%

Draw