Tatjana Maria vs Madison Keys

Eastbourne · WTA · Final

GER

Tatjana Maria

#112WTA

1643ELO

1637Grass ELO

38 yrs · 172 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WWWWLWWLWW

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Sets

Saturday, 27 June 2026 · 12:00

grass

USA

Madison Keys

#27WTA

1957ELO

1777Grass ELO

$990kYTD

$24MCAREER

31 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WWWWLWWLWW

Maria T.

Keys M.

Tatjana Maria faces Madison Keys in the Eastbourne final on grass. Madison Keys holds the paper edge — ranked #27, leading the head-to-head 3–1, a roughly 140-point grass Elo advantage. Recent grass form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:22 UTC

Maria T.17%

Keys M.83%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Keys M. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Under pressure: Madison Keys has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 92 vs Tatjana Maria's 13).
Last match: Tatjana Maria advanced when Jelena Ostapenko retired.
Last match: Madison Keys advanced when Petra Marcinko retired.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Maria T.

5.2

Clear underdogUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Keys M.

6.3

Marginal edgeUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Form & Matchup

3.3Grass Elo 1637

Surface ELO

6.7+139 Grass Elo edge

1.5Overall Elo 1643

ELO gap

8.5Overall Elo 1957

7.0Leads 1–0 on grass

H2H

3.0Trails 0–1 on grass

8.38 of last 10 on grass

Surface form

8.38 of last 10 on grass

7.04-match win streak

Win streak

7.04-match win streak

Fatigue & Travel

5.3Won 55% in GBR (31)

Country comfort

6.6Won 76% in GBR (58)

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

Opponent rise

5.0Opponent hot: 8 of last 10

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Maria T.Stable

Keys M.Cooling

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

21 vs 18 matches

Statistics

This season

Maria T.Keys M.

1st serve in·Slight edge

58%

66%

1st serve points won·Even

65%

67%

2nd serve points won·Even

45%

47%

Service points won·Even

57%

60%

Return points won·Slight edge

40%

45%

Break points saved·Slight edge

55%

65%

Aces / match·Even

3.8

4.0

Double faults / match·Slight edge

2.2

2.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (21 vs 18). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Maria T.serving77% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Keys M.

Keys M.serving88% hold

wins 69% of points on serve vs Maria T.

Serve advantage — Keys M.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure

Maria T.Keys M.

Clutch Rating·Dominant

Break points saved·Dominant

Break points won·Clear edge

Deciding sets·Dominant

Tiebreaks·Dominant

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load

Maria T.Keys M.

Freshness·Even

Maria T.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 73 games (7d) · Keys M.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 75 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed

Medium-fastrewards aggression

SlowFast

Head to head

1–3

Date	Tournament	Round	Surface	Winner	Score
2025-06-09	Queen's Club	SF	grass	Tatjana Maria	6-3 7-6(3)
2019-04-01	Charleston	R32	clay	Madison Keys	7-6(5) 4-6 6-4
2017-08-28	US Open	R64	hard	Madison Keys	6-3 6-4
2015-06-29	Wimbledon	R32	grass	Madison Keys	6-4 6-4