Mccartney Kessler vs Madison Keys — Eastbourne Quarter-final

Eastbourne · WTA · Quarter-final

USA

Mccartney Kessler

#62WTA

1800ELO

1694Grass ELO

$545kYTD

$2.4MCAREER

26 yrs · Right-handed

Last 10

WWLLLWLWWW

—

Sets

Thursday, 25 June 2026 · 11:00

grass

CENTRE COURT · 2nd on

USA

Madison Keys

#27WTA

1957ELO

1777Grass ELO

$990kYTD

$24MCAREER

31 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WWLWWLWWWL

Kessler M.

Keys M.

Mccartney Kessler faces Madison Keys in the Eastbourne quarter-final on grass. Madison Keys holds the paper edge — ranked #27, leading the head-to-head 1–0, a roughly 80-point grass Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:20 UTC

Kessler M.26%

Keys M.74%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Keys M. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Freshness: Mccartney Kessler comes in with 2 days of rest and 40 games in 14d, vs Madison Keys's 1 and 88.
Last match: Madison Keys handed Jessica Bouzas Maneiro a first-set bagel in a 6–0 6–1 win.
Head-to-head: Madison Keys leads the head-to-head 1–0; this is their first meeting on grass. Last met at Brisbane 2026.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Kessler M.

5.2

Clear underdogUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Keys M.

6.3

Marginal edgeUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Form & Matchup

4.0Grass Elo 1694

Surface ELO

6.0+82 Grass Elo edge

3.1Overall Elo 1800

ELO gap

6.9Overall Elo 1957

5.0First meeting on grass

H2H

5.0First meeting on grass

6.67 of last 10 on grass

Surface form

7.37 of last 10 on grass

Fatigue & Travel

Country comfort

6.5Won 75% in GBR (56)

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Kessler M.Stable

Keys M.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

19 vs 18 matches

Statistics

This season

Kessler M.Keys M.

1st serve in·Even

64%

66%

1st serve points won·Slight edge

62%

67%

2nd serve points won·Even

49%

47%

Service points won·Even

58%

60%

Return points won·Even

44%

45%

Break points saved·Slight edge

55%

65%

Aces / match·Clear edge

1.7

4.0

Double faults / match·Slight edge

3.5

2.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (19 vs 18). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Kessler M.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Keys M.

Keys M.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Kessler M.

Serve advantage — Keys M.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure

Kessler M.Keys M.

Clutch Rating·Slight edge

Break points saved·Slight edge

Break points won·Slight edge

Deciding sets·Even

Tiebreaks·Dominant

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load

Kessler M.Keys M.

Freshness·Clear edge

Kessler M.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 22 games (7d) · Keys M.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 68 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

When it starts

2nd on CENTRE COURT · not before Followed by · 1 match still to finish ahead

1Ostapenko J. v Sonmez Z.11:00
2Kessler M. v Keys M.This match

Conditions

Court speed

Medium-fastrewards aggression

SlowFast

Weather forecast

27°CClear

Wind 19 km/hHumidity 64%

Head to head

0–1

Date	Tournament	Round	Surface	Winner	Score
2026-01-04	Brisbane	R32	hard	Madison Keys	6-4 6-3