Jelena Ostapenko vs Francesca Jones — Eastbourne Round of 32
Ostapenko J.
Jelena Ostapenko faces Francesca Jones in the Eastbourne round of 32 on grass. Jelena Ostapenko holds the paper edge — ranked #38, defending last year's round of 16, a roughly 290-point grass Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 19:21 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · Ostapenko J. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Stage: Jelena Ostapenko defends last year's round of 16; Francesca Jones defends last year's round of 16.
- Fatigue load: Francesca Jones carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (20 vs 18). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadJones F.: 5 days rest · 1 match, 34 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.