Talia Gibson vs Madison Keys — Eastbourne Round of 32

Eastbourne · WTA · Round of 32
Talia Gibson
AUS
Talia Gibson
#72WTA
1737ELO
1578Grass ELO
22 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLLLLWWLL
0 — 2
Sets
Tuesday, 23 June 2026 ·
grass
Madison Keys
USA2
Madison Keys
#22WTA
1987ELO
1843Grass ELO
$1.5MYTD
$25MCAREER
31 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLLWWWWWWW
Gibson T.
4-6 4-6
Keys M.
Gibson T.
440
Keys M.
662

Madison Keys defeated Talia Gibson in the Round of 32 at Eastbourne, advancing with a 6-4, 6-4 victory on grass. Neither player converted a service break during the match. Keys won to move forward in the tournament.

Around the match

  • “I have just always really loved playing in Eastbourne. I think the courts are amazing. It's such a quiet, easy week where I've always really enjoyed playing.”

    Keys M.LTA ↗

  • “Getting a couple of breaks early in the first set, and then being able to do it off the first game in the second set - I was just able to continue to serve well and keep the momentum going. I'm glad to get away (with a win).”

    Keys M.LTA ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

  • Match story: Madison Keys edged a tight contest from start to finish — 6–4 6–4.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Gibson T.Keys M.
1st serve in·Even
61%
65%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
47%
Service points won·Even
61%
61%
Return points won·Even
43%
44%
Break points saved·Slight edge
54%
65%
Aces / match·Clear edge
5.9
3.9
Double faults / match·Slight edge
3.9
3.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (48 vs 33). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Gibson T.Keys M.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
74
90
Break points saved·Even
83
85
Break points won·Clear edge
70
92
Deciding sets·Slight edge
83
94
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
90
95

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 11:50 UTC
Gibson T.24%
Keys M.76%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Keys M. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Gibson T.
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Keys M.
7.4
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
2.7Grass Elo 1480
Surface ELO
7.3+184 Grass Elo edge
1.9Overall Elo 1629
ELO gap
8.1Overall Elo 1880
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.75 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
5.96 of last 10 on grass
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Gibson T.Keys M.
Freshness·Slight edge
79
84

Gibson T.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 32 games (7d) · Keys M.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 15 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
26°CClear
Wind 11 km/hHumidity 60%

Draw