Caty Mcnally vs Emiliana Arango — Eastbourne Round of 16
Mcnally C.
Caty Mcnally faces Emiliana Arango in the Eastbourne round of 16 on grass. Caty Mcnally is the paper favourite — ranked #50, a roughly 280-point grass Elo advantage — but Emiliana Arango arrives in form, winning 3 of their last 4 on grass to Caty Mcnally's 2.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 15:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · Mcnally C. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Caty Mcnally comes in with 5 days of rest and 103 games in 14d, vs Emiliana Arango's 1 and 90.
- Serve & return: Serve-return mismatch: Caty Mcnally grades 23 on serve, Emiliana Arango 63 on return.
- Last match: Emiliana Arango edged Maya Joint in two tight sets (7–6 6–4).
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (21 vs 16). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadMcnally C.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 38 games (7d) · Arango E.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 71 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.