Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko — Eastbourne Semi-final
Maria T.
Tatjana Maria faces Jelena Ostapenko in the Eastbourne semi-final on grass. Jelena Ostapenko is the paper favourite — ranked #35, defending last year's round of 16, a roughly 130-point grass Elo advantage — but Tatjana Maria has won their only previous meeting.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 18:21 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Ostapenko J. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Tatjana Maria comes in with 1 days of rest and 115 games in 14d, vs Jelena Ostapenko's 1 and 40.
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, Jelena Ostapenko has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 88 vs 13).
- Last match: Jelena Ostapenko handed Zeynep Sonmez a second-set bagel in a 6–3 6–0 win.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (21 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadMaria T.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 52 games (7d) · Ostapenko J.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 40 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
1–0| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-06-27 | Wimbledon | R16 | grass | Tatjana Maria | 5-7 7-5 7-5 |