Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko — Eastbourne Semi-final

Eastbourne · WTA · Semi-final
Tatjana Maria
GER
Tatjana Maria
#80WTA
1703ELO
1688Grass ELO
39 yrs · 172 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLWWWWW
1 — 0
Sets
Retired
Friday, 26 June 2026 ·
grass
Jelena Ostapenko
LAT
Jelena Ostapenko
#30WTA
1855ELO
1770Grass ELO
$1.5MYTD
$20MCAREER
29 yrs · 177 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWWWWWLW
Maria T.
6-1 1-2
Ostapenko J.
Maria T.
611
Ostapenko J.
120

Tatjana Maria advanced to the Eastbourne semifinals after Jelena Ostapenko retired during their match. At the time of Ostapenko's retirement, Maria led 6-1, 1-2. Maria converted 60% of her break points and won 80% of her first-serve points in the match.

Around the match

  • “It was a tough match from the beginning. Even though I won the first set 6-1 and I was really focused about every single point. I was feeling well, then the rain started but I was focused I was ready to go out here.”

    Maria T.LTA ↗

  • Ostapenko withdrew from her semifinal due to illness after suffering heat stroke earlier in the week.

    Ostapenko J.LTA ↗

  • “It's never nice to end like this, but I'm happy with my week for the moment, and I'm happy to be in the final.”

    Maria T.Sky Sports ↗

  • Ostapenko retired during her semi-final against Maria while feeling unwell after a rain delay.

    Ostapenko J.Sky Sports ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Head to head

1–0
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2022-06-27WimbledonR16grassTatjana Maria5-7 7-5 7-5

Statistics

This season
Maria T.Ostapenko J.
1st serve in·Even
59%
58%
1st serve points won·Even
67%
66%
2nd serve points won·Even
45%
42%
Service points won·Even
58%
56%
Return points won·Even
43%
45%
Break points saved·Even
57%
53%
Aces / match·Even
4.2
3.7
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.2
5.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (41 vs 33). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Maria T.Ostapenko J.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
2
68
Break points saved·Clear edge
4
25
Break points won·Dominant
70
100
Deciding sets·Dominant
3
94
Tiebreaks·Dominant
10
80

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 09:50 UTC
Maria T.24%
Ostapenko J.76%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Ostapenko J. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Maria T.
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Ostapenko J.
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
4.5Grass Elo 1608
Surface ELO
5.5+40 Grass Elo edge
3.2Overall Elo 1581
ELO gap
6.8Overall Elo 1724
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
8.18 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
7.37 of last 10 on grass
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Country comfort
6.4Won 73% in United Kingdom (30)
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year
Opponent rise
5.0Opponent hot: 8 of last 10

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Maria T.Ostapenko J.
Freshness·Slight edge
90
95

Maria T.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 35 games (7d) · Ostapenko J.: 5 days rest · 1 match, 16 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
24°CMainly clear
Wind 23 km/hHumidity 67%

Draw