Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica PegulaCincinnati Final

Cincinnati · WTA · Final
#1WTA
2220ELO
2201Hard ELO
$4.7MYTD
$50MCAREER
28 yrs · 182 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWLWW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 12 August 2024
hard
#4WTA
2097ELO
2058Hard ELO
$2.8MYTD
$25MCAREER
32 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLWWWL
Sabalenka A.
6-3 7-5
Pegula J.
Sabalenka A.
672
Pegula J.
350

Aryna Sabalenka defeated Jessica Pegula 6-3 7-5 in the Cincinnati final on hard. The result followed the form book — Aryna Sabalenka came in ranked #1, leading the head-to-head 8–4, defending last year's semi-final. Aryna Sabalenka extended the head-to-head to 9–4.

Key context

Head to head

84
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-06-20BerlinSFgrassJessica Pegula4-6 7.7-6.4 0-6
2025-11-01Riyadh FinalsRRhardAryna Sabalenka6-4 2-6 6-3
2025-10-06WuhanSFhardJessica Pegula2-6 6-4 7-6(2)
2025-08-25US OpenSFhardAryna Sabalenka4-6 6-3 6-4
2025-03-18MiamiFhardAryna Sabalenka7-5 6-2
2024-08-26US OpenFhardAryna Sabalenka7-5 7-5
2023-10-30Cancun FinalsRRhardJessica Pegula6-4 6-3
2022-10-31Fort Worth FinalsRRhardAryna Sabalenka6-3 7-5
2022-05-09RomeR16clayAryna Sabalenka6-1 6-4
2021-04-29MadridR16clayAryna Sabalenka6-1 6-2
2020-09-28Roland GarrosR128clayAryna Sabalenka6-3 6-1
2020-08-24CincinnatiR16hardJessica Pegula6-2 2-6 6-3

Serve vs return

This season
Sabalenka A.serving81% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Pegula J.

Pegula J.serving77% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Sabalenka A.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Sabalenka A.Pegula J.
96
Serve
68
39
Return
73

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
63%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
68%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
50%
Service points won·Even
63%
61%
Return points won·Even
45%
45%
Break points saved·Slight edge
64%
59%
Aces / match·Slight edge
4.3
3.1
Double faults / match·Even
2.5
2.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (165 vs 151). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
98
96
Break points saved·Even
98
96
Break points won·Even
100
99
Deciding sets·Even
97
100
Tiebreaks·Even
100
96

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.5
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
7.0
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.0+143 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.0Hard Elo 2058
6.9Overall Elo 2220
ELO gap
3.1Overall Elo 2097
4.6
H2H
5.4
6.5
Surface form
8.7
0.0
Win streak
9.05-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
3.3
Minutes 14d
5.7
4.0
3-set count
4.0
9.0
Prev. match
8.0
5.9
Country comfort
7.9
Context
8.5
Defending pts
6.0
5.0
Opponent rise

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
88
76

Sabalenka A.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 21 games (7d) · Pegula J.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 54 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
24°CClear
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 47%

Draw

Final
Sabalenka A.[3]
Pegula J.[6]
6-37-5