Jasmine Paolini vs Anastasia PotapovaCincinnati Round of 32

Cincinnati · WTA · Round of 32
#17WTA
1905ELO
1873Hard ELO
$1.3MYTD
$16MCAREER
30 yrs · 160 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLLWLL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 12 August 2024
hard
#28WTA
1904ELO
1804Hard ELO
$1.2MYTD
$6.5MCAREER
25 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWLWWWLW
Paolini J.
7-6 6-3
Potapova A.
Paolini J.
7762
Potapova A.
6230

Jasmine Paolini defeated Anastasia Potapova 7-6 6-3 in the Cincinnati round of 32 on hard. The result followed the form book — Jasmine Paolini came in ranked #17, defending last year's quarter-final. Jasmine Paolini extended the head-to-head to 2–1.

Key context

Head to head

11
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-03-04Indian WellsR64hardJasmine Paolini6-7(5) 6-2 6-3
2024-03-06Indian WellsR16hardAnastasia Potapova7-5 0-6 6-3

Serve vs return

This season
Paolini J.serving73% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Potapova A.

Potapova A.serving69% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Paolini J.

Serve advantage — Paolini J.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Paolini J.Potapova A.
31
Serve
11
55
Return
52

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Clear edge
68%
56%
1st serve points won·Even
62%
65%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
45%
Service points won·Even
58%
57%
Return points won·Even
45%
44%
Break points saved·Even
55%
57%
Aces / match·Slight edge
1.5
2.6
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.7
4.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (138 vs 113). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
89
81
Break points saved·Even
87
89
Break points won·Slight edge
99
88
Deciding sets·Even
97
96
Tiebreaks·Dominant
93
57

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.2+68 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.8Hard Elo 1804
5.8Overall Elo 1905
ELO gap
4.2Overall Elo 1904
0.0
H2H
10.0
7.5
Surface form
4.2
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 4
Fatigue & Travel
Minutes 14d
8.1
7.0
3-set count
7.0
Prev. match
7.0
5.1
Country comfort
6.0
Surface transition
Context
7.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
72
98

Paolini J.: 3 days rest · 3 matches, 61 games (7d) · Potapova A.: 12 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
24°CClear
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 47%

Draw