Leylah Fernandez vs Elena RybakinaCincinnati Round of 32

Cincinnati · WTA · Round of 32
#24WTA
1805ELO
1785Hard ELO
$787kYTD
$8.1MCAREER
23 yrs · 168 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLLLLWWL
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 12 August 2024
hard
#2WTA
2122ELO
2110Hard ELO
$4.4MYTD
$29MCAREER
27 yrs · 184 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLWLWLW
Fernandez L.
3-6 7-6 6-4
Rybakina E.
Fernandez L.
37762
Rybakina E.
66341

Leylah Fernandez defeated Elena Rybakina 3-6 7-6 6-4 in the Cincinnati round of 32 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Elena Rybakina came in ranked #2, leading the head-to-head 3–1, defending last year's round of 16. Leylah Fernandez narrowed the head-to-head to 3–2.

Key context

Head to head

13
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-04-13StuttgartQFclayElena Rybakina6-7(5) 6-4 7-6(6)
2025-10-20TokyoR16hardElena Rybakina6-4 6-3
2025-07-21WashingtonSFhardLeylah Fernandez6-7(2) 7-6(3) 7-6(3)
2024-02-12DohaQFhardElena Rybakina6-4 6-2

Serve vs return

This season
Fernandez L.serving77% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Rybakina E.

Rybakina E.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Fernandez L.

Serve advantage — Rybakina E.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Fernandez L.Rybakina E.
60
Serve
100
27
Return
34

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
63%
60%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
66%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
50%
Service points won·Slight edge
59%
64%
Return points won·Even
43%
43%
Break points saved·Slight edge
59%
64%
Aces / match·Dominant
2.4
6.7
Double faults / match·Clear edge
4.1
2.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (132 vs 154). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
87
92
Break points saved·Even
95
98
Break points won·Even
95
96
Deciding sets·Slight edge
90
98
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
75
93

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
7.0
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
  • Injury return: 42 days (−1.0)
Form & Matchup
1.0Hard Elo 1785
Surface ELO
9.0+325 Hard Elo edge
1.2Overall Elo 1805
ELO gap
8.8Overall Elo 2122
0.0
H2H
10.0
4.7
Surface form
8.1
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.8
Minutes 14d
4.0
3-set count
7.0
Prev. match
4.3
Country comfort
6.3
Surface transition
7.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
98
89

Fernandez L.: 12 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Rybakina E.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 20 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
24°CClear
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 47%

Draw