Jessica Pegula vs Leylah FernandezCincinnati Quarter-final

Cincinnati · WTA · Quarter-final
#4WTA
2097ELO
2058Hard ELO
$2.8MYTD
$25MCAREER
32 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLWWWL
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 12 August 2024
hard
#24WTA
1805ELO
1785Hard ELO
$787kYTD
$8.1MCAREER
23 yrs · 168 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLLLLWWL
Pegula J.
7-5 6-7 7-6
Fernandez L.
Pegula J.
761772
Fernandez L.
577631

Jessica Pegula defeated Leylah Fernandez 7-5 6-7 7-6 in the Cincinnati quarter-final on hard. The result followed the form book — Jessica Pegula came in ranked #4, leading the head-to-head 2–1, defending last year's round of 16. Jessica Pegula extended the head-to-head to 3–1.

Key context

Head to head

21
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-03-17MiamiR32hardJessica Pegula6-2 6-2
2025-07-21WashingtonR16hardLeylah Fernandez6-3 1-6 7-5
2024-03-18MiamiR32hardJessica Pegula7-5 6-4

Serve vs return

This season
Pegula J.serving81% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Fernandez L.

Fernandez L.serving73% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Pegula J.

Serve advantage — Pegula J.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Pegula J.Fernandez L.
68
Serve
60
73
Return
27

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
62%
63%
1st serve points won·Even
68%
66%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
47%
Service points won·Even
61%
59%
Return points won·Even
45%
43%
Break points saved·Even
59%
59%
Aces / match·Slight edge
3.1
2.4
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.2
4.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (151 vs 132). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
96
87
Break points saved·Even
96
95
Break points won·Even
99
95
Deciding sets·Slight edge
100
90
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
96
75

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
8.6
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
8.0+273 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.0Hard Elo 1785
7.9Overall Elo 2097
ELO gap
2.1Overall Elo 1805
10.0
H2H
0.0
8.7
Surface form
4.7
9.05-match win streak
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
5.7
Minutes 14d
7.8
4.0
3-set count
4.0
8.0
Prev. match
7.0
7.9
Country comfort
4.3
Context
6.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
76
98

Pegula J.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 54 games (7d) · Fernandez L.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
24°CClear
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 47%

Draw