Leylah Fernandez vs Jessica PegulaWashington Round of 16

Washington · WTA · Round of 16
#24WTA
1805ELO
1785Hard ELO
$787kYTD
$8.1MCAREER
23 yrs · 168 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLLLLWWL
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 21 July 2025
hard
#4WTA
2097ELO
2058Hard ELO
$2.8MYTD
$25MCAREER
32 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLWWWL
Fernandez L.
6-3 1-6 7-5
Pegula J.
Fernandez L.
6172
Pegula J.
3651

Leylah Fernandez defeated Jessica Pegula 6-3 1-6 7-5 in the Washington round of 16 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Jessica Pegula came in ranked #4, leading the head-to-head 3–0. Leylah Fernandez claimed a first win over Jessica Pegula in four meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 3–1.

Key context

Head to head

03
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-03-17MiamiR32hardJessica Pegula6-2 6-2
2024-08-12CincinnatiQFhardJessica Pegula7-5 6-7(1) 7-6(3)
2024-03-18MiamiR32hardJessica Pegula7-5 6-4

Serve vs return

This season
Fernandez L.serving75% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Pegula J.

Pegula J.serving81% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Fernandez L.

Serve advantage — Pegula J.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Fernandez L.Pegula J.
60
Serve
68
27
Return
73

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
62%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
67%
68%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
50%
Service points won·Even
60%
61%
Return points won·Even
43%
45%
Break points saved·Even
60%
60%
Aces / match·Slight edge
2.4
3.2
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.8
2.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (76 vs 96). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
87
96
Break points saved·Even
95
96
Break points won·Even
95
99
Deciding sets·Slight edge
90
100
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
75
96

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
8.3
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
2.0Hard Elo 1785
Surface ELO
8.0+273 Hard Elo edge
2.1Overall Elo 1805
ELO gap
7.9Overall Elo 2097
0.0
H2H
10.0
4.5
Surface form
8.3
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
9.0
Prev. match
4.6
Country comfort
8.2
7.0
Surface transition
7.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
98
76

Fernandez L.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Pegula J.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 54 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
27°CDrizzle
Wind 0 km/hHumidity 65%