Aryna Sabalenka vs Iga SwiatekCincinnati Semi-final

Cincinnati · WTA · Semi-final
#1WTA
2220ELO
2201Hard ELO
$4.7MYTD
$50MCAREER
28 yrs · 182 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWLWW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 12 August 2024
hard
#3WTA
2064ELO
2022Hard ELO
$2.0MYTD
$46MCAREER
25 yrs · 176 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLWWWLW
Sabalenka A.
6-3 6-3
Swiatek I.
Sabalenka A.
662
Swiatek I.
330

Aryna Sabalenka defeated Iga Swiatek 6-3 6-3 in the Cincinnati semi-final on hard. The result followed the form book — Aryna Sabalenka came in ranked #1, defending last year's semi-final. Aryna Sabalenka narrowed the head-to-head to 8–5.

Key context

Head to head

48
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-05-26Roland GarrosSFclayAryna Sabalenka7-6(1) 4-6 6-0
2024-05-06RomeFclayIga Swiatek6-2 6-3
2024-04-22MadridFclayIga Swiatek7-5 4-6 7-6(7)
2023-10-30Cancun FinalsSFhardIga Swiatek6-3 6-2
2023-04-24MadridFclayAryna Sabalenka6-3 3-6 6-3
2023-04-17StuttgartFclayIga Swiatek6-3 6-4
2022-10-31Fort Worth FinalsSFhardAryna Sabalenka6-2 2-6 6-1
2022-08-29US OpenSFhardIga Swiatek3-6 6-1 6-4
2022-05-09RomeSFclayIga Swiatek6-2 6-1
2022-04-18StuttgartFclayIga Swiatek6-2 6-2
2022-02-21DohaQFhardIga Swiatek6-2 6-3
2021-11-10Guadalajara FinalsRRhardAryna Sabalenka2-6 6-2 7-5

Serve vs return

This season
Sabalenka A.serving75% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Swiatek I.

Swiatek I.serving81% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Sabalenka A.

Serve advantage — Swiatek I.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Sabalenka A.Swiatek I.
96
Serve
67
39
Return
98

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
63%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
52%
Service points won·Even
63%
63%
Return points won·Even
45%
48%
Break points saved·Even
64%
62%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.3
2.6
Double faults / match·Even
2.5
2.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (165 vs 163). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
98
100
Break points saved·Even
98
98
Break points won·Even
100
100
Deciding sets·Even
97
99
Tiebreaks·Even
100
98

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.6
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
4.8
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Recent retirement (−1.5)
Form & Matchup
7.4+180 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.6Hard Elo 2022
7.3Overall Elo 2220
ELO gap
2.7Overall Elo 2064
4.6
H2H
5.4
6.5
Surface form
7.9
0.0
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
3.3
Minutes 14d
8.9
4.0
3-set count
9.0
Prev. match
5.9
Country comfort
6.6
Surface transition
6.0
Context
8.5
Defending pts
8.5
5.0
Opponent rise

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
88
91

Sabalenka A.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 21 games (7d) · Swiatek I.: 8 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
24°CClear
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 47%

Draw

Semi-finals
Sabalenka A.[3]
Swiatek I.[1]
6-36-3
Pegula J.[6]
Badosa P.
6-23-66-3