UMPIRY
EN

Marta Kostyuk vs Jessica Pegula — WTA Finals Round Robin

WTA FinalsRound RobinHardTue 10 Nov · 23:00
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up
44%56%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Kostyuk M.5.7/10
Slight disadvantage
Pegula J.6.7/10
Slight advantage
Why
Surface+90 Hard Elo edgeSupports Pegula J.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 2096Supports Pegula J.
Recent runLost last 4Informative
Head-to-headTrails 2–4 on hardInformative
This eventReached the semis here last yearSupports Pegula J.
ELO2 100
Hard ELO1 880
Last 104–6
Age24
Height175 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $11.2M2026 $4.4M
ELO2 178
Hard ELO2 057
Last 106–4
Age32
Height170 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $27.6M2026 $5.8M

Marta Kostyuk faces Jessica Pegula in the WTA Finals round robin on hard. Jessica Pegula holds the paper edge — ranked #5, leading the head-to-head 4–3, defending last year's semi-final.

Key context

Common opponents

15 shared · last 12 months
All 15 opponents →

Kostyuk M. and Pegula J. faced 15 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Kostyuk M. went 12–9 (57%) against them, Pegula J. 16–9 (64%). Results against comparable opponents are close (1 : 2 better-results split).

12–957%Kostyuk M. · better vs 1Record vs common opponents16–964%Pegula J. · better vs 2
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
27–23Sets34–24
242–211Games290–268
1–1Tiebreaks5–3
5–3Deciding sets6–4
Show 12 more ▾Show less ▴

Head-to-head

7 meetings · Pegula J. leads 4–3
Full H2H →
34

Clay: Kostyuk M. leads 1–0 · Hard: Pegula J. leads 4–2

Evidence

Kostyuk M.Pegula J.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss4–66–4 (ahead)
Season win rate73% (36–13)77% (50–15) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO21002178 (ahead)
Hard-court ELO18802057 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 47 vs 65 matches
1st-serve points won71% (ahead)70%
Return points won46% (ahead)45%
Aces / match3.94.2 (ahead)
ClutchLast 47 vs 65 matches
Break points saved59% (ahead)58%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

23:00 local
SurfaceHard · medium-fast
Forecast17°C · Overcast
Wind10 km/h
Humidity51%

Court pace medium-fast: rewards aggression.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Kostyuk M.Pegula J.
1Days since last match1
1Matches · 7 days1
18 — fresherGames · 7 days31
1Matches · 14 days1
18 — fresherGames · 14 days31
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Marta Kostyuk vs Jessica Pegula — WTA Finals Round Robin", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-10/kostyuk-vs-pegula-wta-finals-rr?utm_source=cite (as of 10 November 2026).