Marta Kostyuk vs Jessica PegulaBrisbane Semi-final

Brisbane · WTA · Semi-final
#11WTA
2057ELO
1968Hard ELO
$2.3MYTD
$9.1MCAREER
24 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWLWWW
2 — 0
Sets
Sunday, 4 January 2026
hard
#3WTA
2097ELO
2058Hard ELO
$2.8MYTD
$25MCAREER
32 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLWWWL
Kostyuk M.
6-0 6-3
Pegula J.
Kostyuk M.
662
Pegula J.
030

Marta Kostyuk defeated Jessica Pegula 6-0 6-3 in the Brisbane semi-final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Jessica Pegula came in ranked #3, leading the head-to-head 4–2. Marta Kostyuk narrowed the head-to-head to 4–3.

Key context

Head to head

24
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-04-21MadridR32clayMarta Kostyuk6-1 6-4
2025-09-24BeijingR16hardJessica Pegula6-3 6-7(4) 6-1
2025-03-18MiamiR16hardJessica Pegula6-2 6-3
2024-02-26San DiegoSFhardMarta Kostyuk7-6(4) 6-1
2023-01-16Australian OpenR32hardJessica Pegula6-0 6-2
2022-08-15CincinnatiR32hardJessica Pegula6-7(5) 6-1 6-2

Serve vs return

This season
Kostyuk M.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Pegula J.

Pegula J.serving73% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Kostyuk M.

Serve advantage — Kostyuk M.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Kostyuk M.Pegula J.
53
Serve
68
57
Return
73

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
60%
63%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
71%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
51%
Service points won·Even
61%
64%
Return points won·Slight edge
50%
44%
Break points saved·Even
61%
63%
Aces / match·Clear edge
2.9
5.0
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.0
1.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (19 vs 23). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
92
96
Break points saved·Even
93
96
Break points won·Even
98
99
Deciding sets·Even
98
100
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
85
96

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.6
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 90 days (−1.2)
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 64 days (−1.2)
Form & Matchup
3.7Hard Elo 1968
Surface ELO
6.3+91 Hard Elo edge
4.1Overall Elo 2057
ELO gap
5.9Overall Elo 2097
2.3
H2H
7.7
6.0
Surface form
6.6
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
5.6
Country comfort
6.3
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
73
79

Kostyuk M.: 4 days rest · 3 matches, 57 games (7d) · Pegula J.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 28 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
29°COvercast
Wind 1 km/hHumidity 56%

Draw

Semi-finals
Sabalenka A.[1]
Muchova K.[11]
6-36-4
Kostyuk M.[16]
Pegula J.[4]
6-06-3