Coco Gauff vs Jessica PegulaCincinnati Final

Cincinnati · WTA · Final
#4WTA
2071ELO
2035Hard ELO
$4.1MYTD
$34MCAREER
22 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWLWWWW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 24 August 2026 ·
hard
#3WTA
2097ELO
2058Hard ELO
$3.5MYTD
$25MCAREER
32 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWWLWWL
Gauff C.
6-2 6-4
Pegula J.
Gauff C.
662
Pegula J.
240

Coco Gauff won the final of the Cincinnati tournament, defeating Jessica Pegula 6-2, 6-4 on hard courts. Gauff hit 2 aces and 1 double fault, winning 67% of her first serves and converting 83% of her break points. She earned 5 service breaks to Pegula's 2.

Around the match

  • I'm always rooting for American tennis... to play someone that I get along with and that I have a lot of respect for in Coco would be really cool and memorable.

    Pegula J.WTA Tennis
  • Pegula defeated defending champion Swiatek in a comeback from 3-1 down in the third set to reach the Cincinnati final.

  • I was just trying to stay focused. Sometimes you don't know if you should be aggressive and risk making mistakes. I was just trying to stay focused on each ball.

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

46
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-07-07WimbledonQFgrassCoco Gauff6-4 3-6 3-6
2025-11-01Riyadh FinalsRRhardJessica Pegula6-3 6-7 6-2
2025-10-06WuhanFhardCoco Gauff6-4 7-5
2024-11-04Riyadh FinalsRRhardCoco Gauff6-3 6-2
2024-06-17BerlinSFgrassJessica Pegula7-5 7-6
2023-11-04WTA FinalsSFhardJessica Pegula6-2 6-1
2023-10-30Cancun FinalsSFhardJessica Pegula6-2 6-1
2023-08-07MontrealQFhardJessica Pegula6-2 5-7 7-5
2023-06-26EastbourneQFgrassCoco Gauff6-3 6-3
2022-02-14DubaiR32hardJessica Pegula6-4 6-4

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
64%
63%
1st serve points won·Even
67%
70%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
42%
50%
Service points won·Even
58%
62%
Return points won·Even
47%
45%
Break points saved·Even
54%
57%
Aces / match·Clear edge
2.5
4.3
Double faults / match·Dominant
6.0
1.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (42 vs 38). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
93
96
Break points saved·Slight edge
81
86
Break points won·Even
100
99
Deciding sets·Even
99
99
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
99
93

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 00:50 UTC
Gauff C.49%
Pegula J.51%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.7Hard Elo 2035
Surface ELO
5.3+23 Hard Elo edge
4.7Overall Elo 2071
ELO gap
5.3Overall Elo 2096
4.5Trails 2–3 on hard
H2H
5.5Leads 3–2 on hard
9.19 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
8.68 of last 10 on hard
9.05-match win streak
Win streak
9.06-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
0.04 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
80
67

Gauff C.: 5 days rest · 3 matches, 51 games (7d) · Pegula J.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 50 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
19°CClear
Wind 6 km/hHumidity 73%

Draw