Marta Kostyuk vs Linda Noskova — Wimbledon Semi-final

Wimbledon · WTA · Semi-final
Marta Kostyuk
UKR
Marta Kostyuk
#13WTA
2057ELO
1737Grass ELO
$2.3MYTD
$9.1MCAREER
24 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWWWLWWWW
—
Sets
Thursday, 9 July 2026 ·
grass
Linda Noskova
CZE
Linda Noskova
#12WTA
1976ELO
1844Grass ELO
$1.3MYTD
$5.9MCAREER
21 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWWWLWWWW
Kostyuk M.
vs
Noskova L.

Marta Kostyuk faces Linda Noskova in the Wimbledon semi-final on grass. Linda Noskova is the paper favourite — ranked #12, defending last year's round of 16, a roughly 110-point grass Elo advantage — but Marta Kostyuk has won their only previous meeting, though none on grass. Recent grass form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 18:21 UTC
Kostyuk M.40%
Noskova L.60%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Noskova L. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Kostyuk M.
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Noskova L.
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
3.7Grass Elo 1737
Surface ELO
6.3+107 Grass Elo edge
6.0Overall Elo 2057
ELO gap
4.0Overall Elo 1976
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
6.96 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
9.19 of last 10 on grass
9.05-match win streak
Win streak
9.05-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
5.9Won 65% in GBR (20)
Country comfort
Context
6.0Reached the R128 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the last 16 here last year
Heat performance
8.5Excels in hot weather

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Kostyuk M.Cooling
Noskova L.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

20 vs 18 matches

Statistics

This season
Kostyuk M.Noskova L.
1st serve in·Even
60%
58%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
49%
Service points won·Even
61%
63%
Return points won·Slight edge
50%
40%
Break points saved·Slight edge
61%
66%
Aces / match·Dominant
3.0
7.3
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.9
5.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (20 vs 18). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Kostyuk M.serving89% hold

wins 70% of points on serve vs Noskova L.

Noskova L.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Kostyuk M.

Serve advantage — Kostyuk M.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Kostyuk M.Noskova L.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
93
88
Break points saved·Even
93
97
Break points won·Slight edge
98
92
Deciding sets·Even
99
97
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
85
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Kostyuk M.Noskova L.
Freshness·Even
67
65

Kostyuk M.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 76 games (7d) · Noskova L.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 80 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
34°CClear
Wind 8 km/hHumidity 22%

Head to head

1–0
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-04-21MadridQFclayMarta Kostyuk7-6(1) 6-0
R128
R64
R32
R16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Sabalenka A.[1]
Kostovic T.
6-26-3
Oliynykova O.
Kessler M.
0-60-6
Ostapenko J.
Dart H.
6-33-66-4
Ruzic A.
Semenistaja D.
6-33-66-3
Fernandez L.[22]
Tjen J.
1-66-73
Xu M.
Kasatkina D.
2-66-32-6
Gasanova A.
Arango E.
6-36-1
Jacquemot E.
Osaka N.[14]
1-65-7
Muchova K.[10]
Zakharova A.
6-36-2
Andreescu B.
Zhang S.
6-736-76
Parks A.
Dudeney A.
6-36-3
Sawangkaew M.
Chwalinska M.[20]
2-67-56-2
Siniakova K.[32]
Zheng Q.
6-46-4
Stearns P.
Bartunkova N.
4-66-35-7
Krejcikova B.
Klugman H.
6-16-4
Linette M.
Andreeva M.[5]
5-74-6
Pegula J.[4]
Vidmanova D.
7-56-3
Sorribes Tormo S.
Jimenez Kasintseva V.
6-26-3
Yastremska D.
Ito A.
7-614-67-5
Bouzas Maneiro J.
Potapova A.[27]
6-26-3
Alexandrova E.[18]
Udvardy P.
6-46-2
Tararudee L.
Tagger L.
7-635-76-4
Putintseva Y.
Maria T.
4-64-6
J. Cristian
Jovic I.[16]
6-710-6
Bencic B.[11]
Stojsavljevic M.
6-26-1
Wang X.
Cocciaretto E.
6-32-66-2
Jones F.
Parry D.
4-64-6
Frech M.
Kalinskaya A.[19]
6-754-6
Li A.[28]
Sonmez Z.
5-76-14-6
Liu C.
Vandewinkel H.
4-66-36-4
Sierra S.
Bondar A.
6-35-77-5
Korpatsch T.
Gauff C.[7]
2-61-6
Svitolina E.[8]
Snigur D.
5-72-6
Erjavec V.
Jeanjean L.
4-66-46-76
Tomljanovic A.
Bolkvadze M.
2-66-24-6
Krueger A.
Vekic D.[31]
3-67-636-4
Navarro E.[23]
Badosa P.
4-66-37-5
Selekhmeteva O.
Kraus S.
6-17-5
Starodubtseva Y.
Blinkova A.
7-634-61-6
N. Podoroska
Kostyuk M.[12]
1-62-6
Paolini J.[13]
Montgomery R.
0-66-47-5
Shymanovich I.
Golubic V.
2-66-21-6
Kalinina A.
Rakhimova K.
6-44-65-7
Sakkari M.
Tauson C.[24]
6-36-3
Eala A.[29]
Zarazua R.
6-16-2
S. Williams
Joint M.
3-67-663-6
Valentova T.
Pliskova K.
3-64-6
Townsend T.
Swiatek I.[3]
1-66-23-6
Anisimova A.[6]
Gjorcheska L.
6-36-2
Marcinko P.
Kenin S.
6-744-6
Begu I.
Swan K.
4-64-6
Day K.
Keys M.[26]
7-654-63-6
Cirstea S.[17]
Bejlek S.
6-17-66
Birrell K.
Korneeva A.
6-30-66-2
Osorio C.
Waltert S.
6-26-1
Seidel E.
Noskova L.[9]
4-63-6
Shnaider D.[15]
Lys E.
7-56-1
Kudermetova P.
Samsonova L.
3-63-6
Boulter K.
Grant T.
4-62-6
Gibson T.
Bouzkova M.[21]
1-66-32-6
Mertens E.[25]
Siegemund L.
6-26-4
Haddad Maia B.
Timofeeva M.
3-62-6
Ruse E.
Mcnally C.
5-73-6
Boisson L.
Rybakina E.[2]
4-66-13-6
Sabalenka A.[1]
Kessler M.
6-17-69
Ostapenko J.
Ruzic A.
6-26-0
Tjen J.
Kasatkina D.
7-651-64-6
Gasanova A.
Osaka N.[14]
3-62-6
Muchova K.[10]
Zhang S.
6-36-2
Parks A.
Sawangkaew M.
5-70-6
Siniakova K.[32]
Bartunkova N.
2-64-6
Krejcikova B.
Andreeva M.[5]
4-67-56-4
Pegula J.[4]
Sorribes Tormo S.
7-666-1
Yastremska D.
Bouzas Maneiro J.
3-67-612-6
Alexandrova E.[18]
Tararudee L.
7-57-5
Maria T.
Jovic I.[16]
1-62-6
Bencic B.[11]
Wang X.
7-56-0
Parry D.
Kalinskaya A.[19]
4-66-36-78
Sonmez Z.
Liu C.
5-73-6
Sierra S.
Gauff C.[7]
3-66-36-77
Snigur D.
Jeanjean L.
6-46-3
Bolkvadze M.
Krueger A.
1-60-6
Navarro E.[23]
Selekhmeteva O.
3-66-46-1
Blinkova A.
Kostyuk M.[12]
7-653-63-6
Paolini J.[13]
Golubic V.
7-606-4
Rakhimova K.
Sakkari M.
3-66-06-77
Eala A.[29]
Joint M.
3-66-26-0
Pliskova K.
Swiatek I.[3]
1-63-6
Anisimova A.[6]
Kenin S.
6-24-67-63
Swan K.
Keys M.[26]
1-64-6
Cirstea S.[17]
Birrell K.
6-36-4
Osorio C.
Noskova L.[9]
3-66-42-6
Shnaider D.[15]
Samsonova L.
4-66-42-6
Grant T.
Bouzkova M.[21]
5-73-6
Mertens E.[25]
Timofeeva M.
2-66-36-0
Mcnally C.
Rybakina E.[2]
1-62-6
Sabalenka A.[1]
Ostapenko J.
6-46-4
Kasatkina D.
Osaka N.[14]
1-63-6
Muchova K.[10]
Sawangkaew M.
6-27-61
Bartunkova N.
Krejcikova B.
3-65-7
Pegula J.[4]
Bouzas Maneiro J.
6-16-3
Alexandrova E.[18]
Jovic I.[16]
3-66-34-6
Bencic B.[11]
Kalinskaya A.[19]
6-44-67-66
Liu C.
Gauff C.[7]
3-67-652-6
Snigur D.
Krueger A.
3-62-6
Navarro E.[23]
Kostyuk M.[12]
2-66-41-6
Paolini J.[13]
Sakkari M.
6-16-2
Eala A.[29]
Swiatek I.[3]
7-696-2
Anisimova A.[6]
Keys M.[26]
6-32-63-6
Cirstea S.[17]
Noskova L.[9]
6-23-66-79
Samsonova L.
Bouzkova M.[21]
6-46-734-6
Mertens E.[25]
Rybakina E.[2]
7-646-1
Sabalenka A.[1]
Osaka N.[14]
2-66-72
Muchova K.[10]
Krejcikova B.
7-55-76-3
Pegula J.[4]
Jovic I.[16]
4-66-36-1
Bencic B.[11]
Gauff C.[7]
6-43-64-6
Krueger A.
Kostyuk M.[12]
4-64-6
Paolini J.[13]
Eala A.[29]
6-44-66-3
Keys M.[26]
Noskova L.[9]
4-66-72
Bouzkova M.[21]
Mertens E.[25]
4-64-6
Osaka N.[14]
Muchova K.[10]
6-744-6
Pegula J.[4]
Gauff C.[7]
6-43-63-6
Kostyuk M.[12]
Paolini J.[13]
6-36-2
Noskova L.
Mertens E.
6-37-5
Muchova K.[10]
Gauff C.[7]
Kostyuk M.
Noskova L.
—