Petra Marcinko vs Madison Keys — Eastbourne Semi-final
USA
Marcinko P.
Petra Marcinko faces Madison Keys in the Eastbourne semi-final on grass. Madison Keys holds the paper edge — ranked #27, a roughly 320-point grass Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 19:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · Keys M. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Petra Marcinko comes in with 1 days of rest and 156 games in 14d, vs Madison Keys's 1 and 101.
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, Madison Keys has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 92 vs 72).
- Last match: Madison Keys dropped just 4 games past Mccartney Kessler.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (19 vs 18). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadMarcinko P.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 104 games (7d) · Keys M.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 81 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
When it starts
2nd on CENTRE COURT · not before Not before 12:00 PM · 1 match still to finish ahead
- 1Maria T. v Ostapenko J.
- 2Marcinko P. v Keys M.This match
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.