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Win Probability

Sunday, 30 August 2026
20 rated matches · 2 tournamentsFrozen pre-match predictions · final results
Closest matchKamil Majchrzak vs Hamad Medjedovic50% · 50%Toss-up · US Open · R128 · Analyze match →
Strongest favouriteMarta Kostyuk vs Storm Hunter90% · 10%Strong favourite · US Open · R128 · Analyze match →
Rated that day20 matches202 tournaments · pre-match predictions

Rated matches

Pre-match probability, frozen at the start · with final result
FinalUS Open · R128 · HardKamil Majchrzak won 6-3 6-3 6-3Kamil Majchrzak50%Hamad Medjedovic50%Toss-upH2H 2–2FinalUS Open · R128 · HardJaime Faria won 6-3 7-6(4) 4-6 1-6 6-2Jaime Faria50%Jenson Brooksby50%Toss-upH2H 1–2FinalUS Open · R128 · HardEkaterina Alexandrova won 6-2 6-2Mccartney Kessler51%Ekaterina Alexandrova49%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 2–0FinalUS Open · R128 · HardKimberly Birrell won 3-6 7-6(4) 6-3Kimberly Birrell51%Petra Marcinko49%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–2FinalUS Open · R128 · HardPolina Iatcenko won 4-6 6-4 7-6(7)Renata Zarazua48%Polina Iatcenko52%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalUS Open · R128 · HardKarolina Pliskova won 2-6 7-5 6-3Hanne Vandewinkel44%Karolina Pliskova56%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalUS Open · R128 · HardDonna Vekic won 6-2 4-6 6-3Talia Gibson57%Donna Vekic43%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalUS Open · R128 · HardKatie Boulter won 6-4 3-6 6-0Carol Young Suh Lee42%Katie Boulter58%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalUS Open · R128 · HardDaniel Merida Aguilar won 6-4 6-4 6-2Daniel Merida Aguilar59%Marton Fucsovics41%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 1–1FinalUS Open · R128 · HardJaume Munar won 6-7(5) 3-6 6-1 7-6(4) 7-5Jaume Munar61%Terence Atmane39%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalUS Open · R128 · HardLuca Van Assche won 6-7(6) 6-2 6-2 6-3Luca Van Assche38%Cameron Norrie62%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 3–2FinalUS Open · R128 · HardDenis Shapovalov won 6-4 4-6 6-4 6-1Miomir Kecmanovic38%Denis Shapovalov62%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 7–0FinalUS Open · R128 · HardYibing Wu won 7-6(2) 6-2 7-5Yibing Wu63%Adam Walton37%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalUS Open · R128 · HardRei Sakamoto won 6-4 6-7(5) 6-4 3-6 6-4Aleksandar Vukic36%Rei Sakamoto64%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 1–1FinalUS Open · R128 · HardTaylah Preston won 6-3 6-3Taylah Preston65%Alycia Parks35%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalUS Open · R128 · HardJiri Lehecka won 6-1 7-6(5) 4-6 6-2Jiri Lehecka80%Pablo Carreno Busta20%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–2FinalUS Open · R128 · HardDaniil Medvedev won 6-4 6-2 6-4Daniil Medvedev85%Hugo Gaston15%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 2–0FinalUS Open · R128 · HardTommy Paul won 6-7(3) 6-1 6-3 6-3Coleman Wong12%Tommy Paul88%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalUS Open · R128 · HardJessica Pegula won 6-3 6-2Jessica Pegula89%Elena Gabriela Ruse11%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalUS Open · R128 · HardMarta Kostyuk won 6-4 6-1Marta Kostyuk90%Storm Hunter10%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 2–0
Why isn't every match rated? →

Model performance

Measured on predictions the model actually made
Tour familyPredictionsFav. wonAccuracy
ATP / WTA2,759—67%
Challenger Men3,643—63%
Challenger Women914—65%
ITF Men5,320—67%
ITF Women5,096—67%
Yesterday · 29 Aug9 of 16 favourites wonBased on its probabilities, the model expected 9.1 favourites to win.View yesterday →
Biggest shock · last 7 days27 Aug 2026Kingston 2 · QFAndres Andrade beat Max Purcell 6-3 6-3Pre-match: Andres Andrade 14%Surprise score86

How Win Probability works

Read methodology →
Separate models for each tour family.Pre-match only: probabilities update until the match starts.Frozen at the start and never rewritten afterwards.A statistical estimate, not a certainty; the two probabilities always add up to 100%.