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Win Probability

Saturday, 29 August 2026
16 rated matches · 14 tournamentsFrozen pre-match predictions · final results
Closest matchGonzalo Villanueva vs Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo50% · 50%Toss-up · M15 Mar Del Plata · SF · Analyze match →
Strongest favouriteArthur Fery vs James Duckworth71% · 29%Clear favourite · Winston-Salem · SF · Analyze match →
Rated that day16 matches1614 tournaments · pre-match predictions

Rated matches

Pre-match probability, frozen at the start · with final result
FinalM15 Mar Del Plata · SF · ClayJoaquin Aguilar Cardozo won 4-6 6-4 7-6(2)Gonzalo Villanueva50%Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo50%Toss-upH2H 3–2FinalPhilly Open - Philadelphia · F · HardKatie Volynets won 6-3 7-5Katie Volynets51%Tereza Valentova49%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–1FinalM15 Maanshan · SF · HardTianhui Zhang won 6-2 6-4Tianhui Zhang52%Enzo Aguiard48%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalW75 Bytom · SF · ClayBarbora Palicova won 6-1 6-2Mina Hodzic52%Barbora Palicova48%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalW35 Verbier 2 · SF · ClayAngella Okutoyi won 6-7(6) 6-0 7-6(4)Valentina Ryser48%Angella Okutoyi52%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalM25 Maribor · SF · ClaySamuele Pieri won 4-6 6-2 6-4Samuele Pieri47%Sebastian Sorger53%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalRoehampton 2 · F · HardGeorge Loffhagen won 7-5 6-3Charles Broom47%George Loffhagen53%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 2–0FinalM15 Pecs · SF · ClayIgnacio Monzon won 7-5 3-6 6-1John Hallquist Lithen54%Ignacio Monzon46%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalM25 Lausanne · SF · ClayAndrey Chepelev won 6-1 6-4Andrey Chepelev46%Lorenzo Carboni54%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–2FinalMonterrey · SF · HardDiane Parry won 7-6(7) 6-4Diane Parry45%Ann Li55%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–2FinalM25 Oldenzaal · SF · ClayLouis Wessels won 6-4 7-6(0)Luca Wiedenmann57%Louis Wessels43%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalMonterrey · SF · HardElise Mertens won 1-6 6-4 6-2Nikola Bartunkova41%Elise Mertens59%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 1–2FinalWinston-Salem · F · HardIgnacio Buse won 6-3 6-2Arthur Fery64%Ignacio Buse36%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 1–1FinalM25 Oviedo · F · ClayAlexander Ritschard won 7-6(4) 7-6(4)Alexander Ritschard65%Sergi Perez Contri35%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 0–3FinalWinston-Salem · SF · HardArthur Fery won 6-4 1-2James Duckworth29%Arthur Fery71%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 2–2FinalAugsburg · F · ClayCezar Cretu won 6-2 6-0Facundo Mena29%Cezar Cretu71%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 0–1
Why isn't every match rated? →

Model performance

Measured on predictions the model actually made
Tour familyPredictionsFav. wonAccuracy
ATP / WTA2,759—67%
Challenger Men3,643—63%
Challenger Women914—65%
ITF Men5,320—67%
ITF Women5,096—67%
Yesterday · 28 Aug10 of 20 favourites wonBased on its probabilities, the model expected 11.4 favourites to win.View yesterday →
Biggest shock · last 7 days27 Aug 2026M15 Pecs · R16Andrea Paolini beat Mate Valkusz 4-6 6-4 6-2Pre-match: Andrea Paolini 11%Surprise score89

How Win Probability works

Read methodology →
Separate models for each tour family.Pre-match only: probabilities update until the match starts.Frozen at the start and never rewritten afterwards.A statistical estimate, not a certainty; the two probabilities always add up to 100%.