Arthur Fery vs Ignacio Buse — Winston-Salem Final

Winston-Salem · ATP · Final
GBR4
Arthur Fery
#37ATP
1721ELO
1685Hard ELO
$344kYTD
$884kCAREER
24 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWWLWLWWW
—
Sets
Saturday, 29 August 2026 ·
hard
Ignacio Buse
PER3
Ignacio Buse
#36ATP
1822ELO
1662Hard ELO
$949kYTD
$1.4MCAREER
22 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWWLLLWWL
Fery A.
vs
Buse I.

Arthur Fery faces Ignacio Buse in the Winston-Salem final on hard. Arthur Fery holds the paper edge — leading the head-to-head 2–0, a roughly 20-point hard Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTC
Fery A.64%
Buse I.36%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Fery A. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
7 common opponents · Fery A. 5–3 · Buse I. 5–3
Both won · different surfaces (Grass × Clay)▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Fery A.
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Buse I.
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.3+23 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.7Hard Elo 1662
3.7Overall Elo 1721
ELO gap
6.3Overall Elo 1822
7.8Leads 2–0 on hard
H2H
2.2Trails 0–2 on hard
8.38 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.76 of last 10 on hard
7.04-match win streak
Win streak
7.04-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

26 vs 32 matches

Statistics

This season
Fery A.Buse I.
1st serve in·Even
63%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
68%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
54%
50%
Service points won·Even
63%
63%
Return points won·Even
39%
38%
Break points saved·Even
61%
63%
Aces / match·Even
3.7
3.7
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.6
2.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (26 vs 32). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Fery A.serving82% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Buse I.

Buse I.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Fery A.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Fery A.Buse I.
Clutch Rating·Even
61
63
Break points saved·Even
85
87
Break points won·Slight edge
33
28
Deciding sets·Clear edge
96
80
Tiebreaks·Dominant
46
93

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Fery A.Buse I.
Freshness·Slight edge
55
48

Fery A.: played today · 4 matches, 80 games (7d) · Buse I.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 110 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather forecast
29°COvercast
Wind 11 km/hHumidity 53%

Head to head

2–0
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-10-13StockholmQ1hardArthur Fery6-3 6-1
2025-10-11StockholmQ16hardArthur Fery6-3 6-1

Draw