UMPIRY
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Win Probability

Friday, 28 August 2026
20 rated matches · 2 tournamentsFrozen pre-match predictions · final results
Closest matchZsombor Piros vs C. O'Connell50% · 50%Toss-up · US Open · Q32 · Analyze match →
Strongest favouriteQinwen Zheng vs Elena Pridankina78% · 22%Clear favourite · US Open · Q64 · Analyze match →
Rated that day20 matches202 tournaments · pre-match predictions

Rated matches

Pre-match probability, frozen at the start · with final result
FinalUS Open · Q32 · HardZsombor Piros won 5-7 7-6(3)Zsombor Piros50%C. O'Connell50%Toss-upH2H 2–0FinalUS Open · Q32 · HardTristan Schoolkate won 4-6 7-5 7-6(7)Liam Draxl49%Tristan Schoolkate51%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalUS Open · Q32 · HardHarry Wendelken won 6-7(3) 7-6(5) 7-6(5)Vilius Gaubas51%Harry Wendelken49%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalUS Open · Q32 · HardFrancesco Passaro won 6-4 6-2Shintaro Mochizuki52%Francesco Passaro48%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 2–0FinalUS Open · Q64 · HardMary Stoiana won 6-3 4-6 6-4Yue Yuan53%Mary Stoiana47%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalUS Open · Q64 · HardStorm Hunter won 6-4 6-1Darja Semenistaja46%Storm Hunter54%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–1FinalUS Open · Q32 · HardDalibor Svrcina won 4-6 6-2 7-5Dalibor Svrcina55%Mackenzie Mcdonald45%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalUS Open · Q32 · HardNishesh Basavareddy won 6-3 6-1Arthur Gea45%Nishesh Basavareddy55%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalUS Open · Q64 · HardKristina Liutova won 6-4 6-0Kristina Liutova44%Martyna Kubka56%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalUS Open · Q32 · HardRei Sakamoto won 6-4 7-6(3)Kei Nishikori56%Rei Sakamoto44%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalUS Open · Q32 · HardFederico Cina won 3-6 6-4 7-5Bu Yunchaokete56%Federico Cina44%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–1FinalUS Open · Q64 · HardHimeno Sakatsume won 6-4 6-3Mia Ristic43%Himeno Sakatsume57%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalUS Open · Q64 · HardFrancesca Jones won 6-4 6-1Francesca Jones57%Joanna Garland43%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalUS Open · Q64 · HardAnouk Koevermans won 6-3 7-6(5)Mariam Bolkvadze43%Anouk Koevermans57%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalUS Open · Q64 · HardLucie Havlickova won 6-0 6-4Lucie Havlickova58%Nao Hibino42%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 1–1FinalUS Open · Q32 · HardHugo Gaston won 1-6 6-4 6-2Hugo Gaston60%Colton Smith40%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalUS Open · Q64 · HardElvina Kalieva won 5-7 6-4 6-4Elvina Kalieva39%Vendula Valdmannova61%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalUS Open · Q32 · HardJurij Rodionov won 4-6 6-4 6-4Jacob Fearnley63%Jurij Rodionov37%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalUS Open · Q64 · HardArantxa Rus won 1-6 6-3 6-4Susan Bandecchi63%Arantxa Rus37%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 0–2FinalUS Open · Q64 · HardQinwen Zheng won 6-4 3-6 6-0Qinwen Zheng78%Elena Pridankina22%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 0–1
Why isn't every match rated? →

Model performance

Measured on predictions the model actually made
Tour familyPredictionsFav. wonAccuracy
ATP / WTA2,759—67%
Challenger Men3,643—63%
Challenger Women914—65%
ITF Men5,320—67%
ITF Women5,096—67%
Yesterday · 27 Aug13 of 18 favourites wonBased on its probabilities, the model expected 11.3 favourites to win.View yesterday →
Biggest shock · last 7 days27 Aug 2026M15 Pecs · R16Andrea Paolini beat Mate Valkusz 4-6 6-4 6-2Pre-match: Andrea Paolini 11%Surprise score89

How Win Probability works

Read methodology →
Separate models for each tour family.Pre-match only: probabilities update until the match starts.Frozen at the start and never rewritten afterwards.A statistical estimate, not a certainty; the two probabilities always add up to 100%.